***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 02.11.2017. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 13.11.2017.-19.11.2017. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 41 59 100 15.0 16.6 18.6 151.5 75.0 64.5 6.0 9.9 11.6 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 44 56 100 15.2 15.9 15.4 137.3 71.9 63.9 2.8 8.2 11.8 30 Becej 27400G00 0 40 60 100 18.5 23.2 19.0 154.2 74.7 64.4 7.3 8.8 13.6 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 28 72 100 24.2 30.0 26.6 184.4 81.0 69.3 3.7 15.0 21.7 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 81 19 100 15.3 29.5 22.4 164.2 78.8 65.4 5.0 12.3 19.7 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 42 58 100 26.8 31.6 20.0 151.6 74.9 65.2 5.7 11.8 20.3 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 81 19 100 8.4 13.2 15.8 138.8 71.0 63.5 4.0 6.3 11.7 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 81 19 100 23.5 43.5 22.6 156.4 75.4 63.5 5.6 18.0 24.8 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 40 60 100 23.1 30.2 21.1 160.9 77.6 64.0 4.7 11.4 16.4 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 80 20 100 14.9 32.7 22.3 160.7 77.6 63.5 6.2 10.4 22.1 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 81 19 100 17.2 26.3 21.8 157.4 76.4 64.4 5.9 14.6 20.5 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 81 19 100 20.7 29.0 20.8 151.2 74.5 63.9 2.8 17.4 26.4 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 40 60 100 27.4 27.8 20.9 151.0 74.8 65.7 7.4 18.5 25.2 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 42 58 100 26.0 32.9 21.7 151.4 77.3 65.2 5.9 15.6 27.5 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 33 67 100 21.5 31.0 27.4 191.0 81.2 68.7 3.6 7.0 13.7 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 36 64 100 22.2 26.0 21.2 159.9 77.0 66.3 6.1 13.0 21.7 30 Nis 06700G01 0 41 59 100 15.1 14.9 14.1 129.7 70.8 62.0 2.6 9.8 13.4 30 Palic 37000G16 0 78 22 100 17.8 28.3 22.7 159.2 77.1 63.1 5.4 14.5 23.2 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 42 58 100 15.9 19.8 15.9 138.4 71.6 63.9 4.0 8.8 17.4 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 81 19 100 23.5 34.3 27.8 155.7 76.0 63.4 7.6 21.0 28.6 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 38 62 100 21.2 24.7 20.3 158.7 76.8 64.8 4.1 10.6 16.7 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 81 19 100 12.1 15.7 13.7 119.2 68.2 60.0 3.6 9.4 15.3 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 40 60 100 18.2 17.4 17.4 145.0 72.7 65.1 3.6 9.1 15.3 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 39 61 100 19.8 26.9 21.2 157.1 77.4 64.0 3.7 8.6 19.8 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 39 61 100 17.8 20.2 21.6 151.6 75.0 64.5 3.3 11.6 16.6 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 36 64 100 27.6 31.9 23.0 157.4 74.9 68.1 8.4 14.8 23.9 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 39 61 100 16.1 19.4 19.6 148.8 74.8 64.4 4.5 8.5 13.9 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 29 71 100 23.9 33.5 25.5 187.4 81.9 69.4 3.7 8.0 17.7 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 78 22 100 25.8 38.9 24.6 155.9 75.9 63.3 9.6 22.0 30.6 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 43 57 100 14.9 16.8 16.9 145.7 73.3 64.5 3.8 7.8 12.8 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------