***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 02.11.2017. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 06.11.2017.-12.11.2017. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 83 17 100 8.3 9.3 11.1 82.9 58.7 53.8 2.8 6.7 10.9 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 86 14 100 8.6 12.5 9.3 81.6 58.8 54.3 2.2 6.3 15.0 30 Becej 27400G00 0 85 15 100 9.8 10.5 10.0 81.3 56.0 52.9 2.6 8.1 13.9 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 84 16 100 10.4 15.8 19.1 118.8 67.9 61.0 1.8 8.9 15.6 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 84 16 100 8.2 8.2 11.6 80.0 55.3 50.1 1.8 6.3 16.3 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 83 17 100 7.9 14.0 12.8 88.2 61.4 54.4 1.0 6.0 15.3 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 85 15 100 9.2 9.1 9.2 80.4 58.6 53.4 1.1 7.9 13.0 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 83 17 100 15.8 18.0 14.4 85.9 58.2 52.2 3.9 13.3 23.3 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 86 14 100 9.4 8.9 10.6 77.3 53.2 50.0 1.1 8.3 13.8 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 83 17 100 9.6 10.4 11.7 75.7 52.9 48.8 1.6 7.8 17.2 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 84 16 100 8.8 10.4 12.8 87.1 58.0 51.9 0.7 6.4 12.3 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 84 16 100 8.5 10.3 15.4 98.9 62.4 56.4 1.2 6.6 12.7 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 85 15 100 12.7 12.2 15.8 96.6 61.3 55.9 0.6 11.5 12.4 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 85 15 100 12.3 17.7 11.9 81.9 57.4 52.5 4.7 10.1 18.8 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 39 61 100 11.1 13.2 24.5 151.6 76.1 68.2 0.7 6.2 9.4 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 85 15 100 8.3 10.3 15.1 97.4 61.3 56.0 1.5 6.0 11.1 30 Nis 06700G01 0 85 15 100 8.1 10.7 8.8 79.7 58.7 52.8 1.5 5.3 14.0 30 Palic 37000G16 0 86 14 100 9.4 8.0 12.2 77.0 54.9 49.9 2.1 7.4 15.1 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 86 14 100 9.0 12.2 9.8 85.6 60.1 54.8 1.5 6.9 16.1 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 84 16 100 12.2 12.4 16.4 82.3 58.2 51.7 4.0 10.2 17.4 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 84 16 100 8.1 7.9 10.6 77.6 53.5 50.3 2.5 6.4 11.9 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 86 14 100 8.3 12.1 11.0 95.7 61.7 56.2 1.7 5.6 13.5 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 85 15 100 10.8 12.7 10.5 88.2 60.9 54.4 2.1 8.0 15.1 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 85 15 100 10.1 12.0 11.0 79.5 56.3 51.6 2.0 7.9 14.4 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 85 15 100 6.7 7.5 12.4 81.6 56.3 51.5 1.2 4.8 9.2 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 83 17 100 8.7 15.8 18.9 112.4 67.9 61.4 0.2 6.6 14.9 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 85 15 100 6.9 7.3 11.6 82.6 57.7 52.6 1.7 5.7 9.9 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 83 17 100 5.0 12.6 19.8 130.9 70.3 64.0 0.5 2.9 11.1 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 84 16 100 13.9 18.9 13.9 81.5 57.6 51.6 4.2 11.0 24.3 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 87 13 100 7.8 9.5 10.0 85.8 60.0 55.5 2.5 6.9 12.5 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------