***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 02.11.2017. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 06.11.2017.-03.12.2017. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 79 21 100 10.3 9.9 9.6 0.3 54.6 54.7 8.3 9.8 10.8 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 84 16 100 9.7 9.7 9.8 0.5 56.3 56.1 7.4 9.3 10.5 30 Becej 27400G00 0 80 20 100 11.2 11.2 10.1 0.3 54.6 54.9 8.6 10.9 11.5 30 Beograd 28900G14 58 42 0 100 2.7 4.0 6.3 -0.3 44.0 46.1 3.0 4.3 4.8 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 77 23 100 10.8 10.5 7.9 0.0 50.9 50.3 8.9 10.4 11.6 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 78 22 100 10.0 9.5 7.2 0.1 50.9 51.4 8.6 9.5 10.9 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 84 16 100 9.7 10.1 9.7 0.5 58.7 57.3 7.1 9.4 10.5 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 79 21 100 3.2 2.7 7.3 0.0 51.4 50.8 2.0 2.7 3.9 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 79 21 100 11.7 11.4 8.9 0.1 53.2 51.9 8.6 11.3 11.9 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 79 21 100 10.8 10.6 8.0 0.1 52.4 51.6 7.9 10.5 11.3 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 79 21 100 11.2 11.0 8.4 0.2 54.2 52.9 8.7 10.7 11.8 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 79 21 100 10.9 10.7 7.8 0.1 53.1 52.3 9.0 10.6 11.6 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 82 18 100 10.8 10.9 8.2 0.4 56.2 55.3 9.6 10.4 12.1 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 81 19 100 11.4 11.1 9.4 0.2 50.0 52.2 8.8 11.1 12.0 30 Loznica 29500G14 54 46 0 100 7.0 8.1 7.6 -0.2 45.6 48.7 7.5 8.3 9.9 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 79 21 100 11.5 11.3 8.1 0.2 55.6 53.5 10.0 11.0 12.4 30 Nis 06700G01 0 84 16 100 9.5 9.3 9.5 0.4 56.0 55.1 6.5 9.1 10.0 30 Palic 37000G16 0 79 21 100 9.5 9.3 7.9 0.1 50.7 51.1 6.9 9.2 10.0 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 83 17 100 10.2 10.5 10.0 0.5 55.7 56.3 7.7 9.9 10.8 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 80 20 100 7.8 7.6 6.2 0.0 50.9 50.5 6.6 7.5 8.3 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 78 22 100 11.1 10.9 9.4 0.1 52.2 51.9 8.7 10.6 11.4 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 82 18 100 10.1 10.0 9.5 0.3 54.4 53.8 6.8 9.8 10.7 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 82 18 100 10.4 10.3 10.3 0.6 55.6 56.9 7.3 10.1 11.0 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 80 20 100 12.0 11.9 9.3 0.2 51.3 52.6 9.7 11.8 12.5 28 Valjevo 28500G11 0 77 23 100 9.8 9.4 8.2 0.1 50.7 51.9 8.1 9.4 10.4 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 80 20 100 10.4 10.7 7.4 0.2 54.6 53.9 9.0 10.2 11.1 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 80 20 100 10.7 10.8 9.2 0.3 55.3 55.2 9.0 10.3 11.5 30 Vrsac 39200G15 56 44 0 100 7.7 8.6 6.9 -0.3 44.7 47.1 7.9 8.6 10.0 29 Zajecar 36700G16 0 80 20 100 7.3 7.0 7.4 0.1 51.7 51.7 5.3 7.0 8.1 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 83 17 100 9.8 10.0 9.8 0.5 57.2 56.6 7.7 9.4 10.6 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------