***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 02.11.2017. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 20.11.2017.-26.11.2017. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 59 41 0 100 5.7 7.5 8.2 -0.4 44.5 47.6 6.4 8.7 10.6 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 76 24 100 9.2 7.9 8.2 -0.2 48.1 48.7 6.3 8.3 10.6 30 Becej 27400G00 53 47 0 100 7.1 9.5 8.5 -0.4 45.1 47.0 7.4 10.0 12.1 30 Beograd 28900G14 61 39 0 100 0.6 2.2 5.4 -0.7 38.2 43.9 1.9 3.7 6.6 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 60 40 0 100 7.1 9.8 6.4 -0.7 42.9 44.3 6.6 10.4 11.8 30 Cuprija 39700G22 52 48 0 100 6.2 7.4 6.1 -0.5 44.3 45.8 6.8 9.0 11.0 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 75 25 100 9.0 8.1 8.2 -0.1 49.2 49.5 6.1 8.1 10.8 30 Kikinda 37800G18 55 45 0 100 -0.4 2.0 6.0 -0.7 42.5 44.4 0.7 2.6 4.6 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 59 41 0 100 7.3 10.7 7.2 -0.7 44.2 44.2 8.1 10.7 12.2 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 56 44 0 100 6.7 8.6 6.6 -0.7 43.4 44.4 6.5 10.2 11.2 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 58 42 0 100 6.8 9.8 6.6 -0.6 44.2 45.1 7.6 10.4 11.6 30 Krusevac 38200G21 55 45 0 100 7.2 9.6 6.4 -0.6 42.9 45.1 7.1 10.7 11.7 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 78 22 100 11.3 8.9 6.3 -0.4 43.6 46.3 8.0 10.6 12.0 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 76 24 100 11.8 10.1 7.6 -0.6 44.7 45.6 8.5 10.5 12.2 30 Loznica 29500G14 58 42 0 100 4.8 5.6 5.9 -0.8 37.4 43.4 4.7 7.4 10.0 30 Negotin 38800G20 53 47 0 100 7.8 9.8 6.4 -0.5 43.4 45.8 8.0 10.8 12.7 30 Nis 06700G01 0 76 24 100 8.9 7.5 8.1 -0.2 48.6 48.4 6.1 8.2 9.6 30 Palic 37000G16 53 47 0 100 5.5 7.5 6.7 -0.7 44.8 45.0 5.2 7.8 8.8 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 76 24 100 9.9 8.8 8.4 -0.3 47.4 48.1 6.6 8.9 10.6 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 51 49 0 100 3.7 4.9 4.9 -0.6 44.4 44.6 4.4 6.3 8.2 30 Sjenica 27900G10 60 40 0 100 7.0 10.1 7.7 -0.6 42.7 44.9 7.0 10.4 12.4 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 78 22 100 10.0 8.9 8.0 -0.3 48.2 47.3 7.0 9.2 10.1 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 76 24 100 9.7 8.3 8.6 -0.3 46.3 47.3 6.9 8.7 10.5 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 52 48 0 100 7.2 10.0 7.6 -0.6 45.3 45.6 7.9 10.8 12.4 30 Valjevo 28500G11 59 41 0 100 6.5 8.4 6.6 -0.6 41.0 45.1 6.2 9.0 11.2 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 53 47 0 100 6.6 8.2 6.2 -0.3 41.9 46.7 7.2 9.1 10.3 30 Vranje 18300G04 57 43 0 100 6.9 9.2 7.7 -0.3 45.8 47.6 7.6 9.5 12.3 30 Vrsac 39200G15 58 42 0 100 5.7 6.5 5.7 -0.8 38.5 43.8 6.1 7.9 10.0 29 Zajecar 36700G16 53 47 0 100 3.2 5.6 6.1 -0.6 44.3 45.0 4.2 5.8 8.8 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 53 47 0 100 5.9 8.1 8.2 -0.2 46.8 48.6 6.4 8.3 11.1 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------