***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 02.11.2017. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 13.11.2017.-19.11.2017. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 81 19 100 11.2 10.1 9.8 -0.3 45.8 48.8 8.6 10.3 11.8 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 80 20 100 10.2 9.4 9.9 -0.3 48.5 49.0 6.8 9.6 10.8 30 Becej 27400G00 0 79 21 100 11.6 10.5 10.1 -0.4 45.4 48.2 7.8 10.9 12.1 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 82 18 100 6.1 5.1 6.8 -0.4 46.7 48.8 2.8 5.3 7.1 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 79 21 100 11.2 9.9 8.2 -0.5 43.4 47.2 8.6 10.3 12.1 30 Cuprija 39700G22 51 49 0 100 7.7 9.6 7.2 -0.4 42.8 47.1 9.1 10.0 12.2 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 82 18 100 10.2 9.7 9.9 -0.2 49.4 49.3 6.3 9.7 10.6 30 Kikinda 37800G18 54 46 0 100 0.7 2.0 7.1 -0.8 37.3 43.5 1.9 2.7 4.5 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 77 23 100 11.7 10.2 9.0 -0.5 43.1 46.9 8.9 10.8 12.0 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 52 48 0 100 8.2 9.5 7.9 -0.8 39.7 44.8 8.6 10.5 11.5 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 76 24 100 12.0 10.1 8.6 -0.5 44.2 47.3 9.2 11.3 12.2 30 Krusevac 38200G21 54 46 0 100 7.9 9.4 7.8 -0.5 40.8 45.9 8.5 10.2 13.2 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 56 44 0 100 8.3 10.4 8.6 -0.2 44.7 48.9 9.4 10.9 12.4 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 77 23 100 11.7 10.1 9.2 -0.7 44.6 45.6 8.2 10.6 13.0 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 82 18 100 9.2 8.9 8.4 -0.1 51.9 51.4 7.7 8.9 9.9 30 Negotin 38800G20 53 47 0 100 8.7 10.7 8.3 -0.3 44.7 48.4 9.4 11.3 13.5 30 Nis 06700G01 0 80 20 100 9.8 9.0 9.5 -0.4 47.1 47.3 6.7 9.1 10.2 30 Palic 37000G16 52 48 0 100 7.6 8.8 7.5 -1.0 38.6 43.2 7.7 9.4 10.5 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 80 20 100 10.8 10.1 10.1 -0.3 48.6 49.2 7.3 10.1 11.5 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 76 24 100 8.4 5.5 5.7 -1.2 35.1 40.5 5.5 7.2 10.0 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 79 21 100 11.4 9.9 9.6 -0.5 43.5 47.1 8.2 10.8 12.0 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 81 19 100 10.3 9.5 9.6 -0.5 46.4 46.9 7.3 9.7 10.8 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 80 20 100 10.5 9.8 10.3 -0.2 50.0 49.7 7.2 9.8 11.5 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 51 49 0 100 8.7 10.3 9.1 -0.8 43.5 45.4 8.7 10.9 12.8 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 81 19 100 10.3 9.2 8.5 -0.4 44.3 48.4 7.3 9.9 10.8 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 52 48 0 100 8.3 9.6 7.6 -0.1 45.1 49.3 9.1 9.8 11.9 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 82 18 100 11.2 10.1 9.4 -0.3 45.3 49.0 8.3 10.7 11.5 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 81 19 100 9.5 9.0 7.6 -0.3 48.7 49.6 8.6 9.0 10.2 29 Zajecar 36700G16 53 47 0 100 4.4 5.2 6.9 -1.1 37.1 42.3 4.6 6.4 8.8 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 81 19 100 10.5 9.8 10.0 -0.2 48.1 49.5 6.8 10.0 11.0 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------