***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 02.11.2017. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 06.11.2017.-12.11.2017. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 88 12 100 12.2 13.0 13.0 0.9 64.3 61.9 11.1 11.9 13.1 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 91 9 100 11.5 12.1 13.5 1.2 64.5 63.4 10.3 11.3 12.1 30 Becej 27400G00 0 89 11 100 12.6 13.2 13.6 1.1 63.9 62.3 10.8 12.2 13.2 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 81 19 100 6.3 5.6 8.1 -0.9 40.1 39.7 4.9 6.0 6.5 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 93 7 100 12.8 12.8 11.0 0.2 53.2 52.3 10.5 12.7 13.2 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 95 5 100 11.9 11.4 9.7 0.1 48.8 48.0 10.1 11.8 13.4 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 91 9 100 11.3 12.3 13.4 1.3 64.5 64.0 10.1 11.1 12.6 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 96 4 100 5.1 5.2 10.3 0.6 52.6 52.5 3.5 5.0 6.7 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 92 8 100 13.4 13.5 12.4 0.7 58.4 57.8 10.8 13.2 14.1 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 94 6 100 12.4 13.2 11.4 0.8 57.2 56.4 9.9 12.3 13.7 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 93 7 100 12.8 13.6 12.2 0.9 59.8 58.7 10.7 12.6 14.0 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 95 5 100 12.4 13.2 11.0 0.7 54.8 54.6 10.0 12.3 14.0 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 96 4 100 12.1 13.2 12.3 0.9 59.8 58.7 10.5 12.0 13.8 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 95 5 100 12.6 13.5 13.1 1.0 58.4 58.4 10.8 12.4 14.5 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 90 10 100 11.4 10.8 10.6 -0.4 45.8 45.4 9.5 11.3 11.7 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 94 6 100 13.2 13.5 11.6 0.8 58.1 57.3 11.3 13.0 14.4 30 Nis 06700G01 0 91 9 100 10.9 11.6 13.0 1.1 62.2 61.7 9.4 10.7 11.9 30 Palic 37000G16 0 95 5 100 11.3 11.8 11.0 0.8 55.4 54.8 8.6 11.2 12.7 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 89 11 100 11.6 12.6 13.8 1.4 65.7 64.4 10.7 11.2 12.6 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 97 3 100 9.7 9.6 9.3 0.7 49.9 51.0 7.3 9.6 11.5 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 92 8 100 13.1 13.3 13.0 0.7 58.0 58.0 10.4 13.0 13.7 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 92 8 100 11.7 12.2 13.2 1.1 62.8 60.9 9.7 11.5 12.3 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 39 61 100 13.5 12.9 14.1 1.6 67.6 66.7 10.6 11.4 12.9 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 93 7 100 13.6 13.9 13.0 1.0 60.8 59.3 11.2 13.4 14.5 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 91 9 100 11.7 11.8 11.7 0.5 58.9 57.0 9.9 11.5 12.4 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 98 2 100 11.8 11.7 10.2 0.3 49.3 48.7 10.8 11.7 13.5 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 88 12 100 12.5 12.9 12.7 1.0 64.1 61.9 11.0 12.2 13.0 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 85 15 100 11.3 10.5 9.3 -0.7 42.5 42.0 9.8 11.0 12.5 29 Zajecar 36700G16 0 96 4 100 9.1 9.5 10.6 0.9 55.6 54.8 5.7 8.9 11.3 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 88 12 100 11.6 12.6 13.6 1.3 65.9 64.4 10.3 11.3 12.6 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------