***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 02.11.2017. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 06.11.2017.-03.12.2017. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 36 64 100 3.8 4.2 4.5 1.3 73.5 68.5 1.0 2.4 3.4 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 35 65 100 3.1 3.4 4.1 1.2 72.9 68.0 0.5 1.6 3.0 30 Becej 27400G00 0 40 60 100 4.9 5.3 4.3 1.1 71.3 67.0 2.2 3.7 4.7 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 84 16 100 -1.4 -0.1 1.3 0.8 66.2 62.7 -3.0 -1.8 -0.1 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 84 16 100 1.5 2.0 2.2 0.9 67.1 63.9 0.4 1.2 2.0 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 84 16 100 1.2 1.4 0.0 0.8 63.9 62.5 -0.2 0.9 1.5 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 39 61 100 3.0 3.3 4.1 1.2 71.2 67.0 0.6 1.6 2.7 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 42 58 100 -2.4 -2.4 0.2 0.8 66.5 62.2 -4.1 -3.4 -2.5 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 44 56 100 3.2 2.8 2.5 1.0 67.6 64.8 1.2 1.9 2.7 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 43 57 100 2.7 2.5 0.9 0.8 66.0 62.9 0.7 1.4 2.5 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 81 19 100 1.6 2.0 1.6 0.9 66.2 63.3 0.2 1.1 2.0 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 81 19 100 0.8 1.2 0.9 0.8 64.2 62.2 -0.9 0.3 1.4 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 85 15 100 1.2 1.5 0.7 0.8 61.1 61.1 0.1 1.0 1.6 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 82 18 100 2.5 2.9 2.0 0.7 62.9 61.7 1.3 2.2 3.0 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 46 54 100 2.5 2.9 2.7 1.0 70.1 66.4 0.4 1.7 2.7 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 83 17 100 2.3 2.7 1.1 0.9 65.1 62.9 1.1 1.9 2.8 30 Nis 06700G01 0 40 60 100 2.7 3.0 3.8 1.1 70.9 65.9 0.5 1.4 2.5 30 Palic 37000G16 0 81 19 100 0.2 0.5 0.2 0.8 63.3 61.1 -0.9 0.0 0.6 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 34 66 100 3.1 3.6 4.1 1.2 72.9 68.2 0.9 1.8 2.8 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 82 18 100 -1.9 -1.5 -0.9 0.8 65.2 61.5 -3.1 -2.2 -1.3 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 43 57 100 3.2 3.2 3.6 1.0 69.1 65.2 0.8 1.9 2.5 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 34 66 100 2.7 2.6 3.8 1.0 70.7 66.1 0.3 1.3 2.3 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 34 66 100 2.8 3.0 3.8 1.1 72.2 67.6 0.9 1.6 2.6 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 41 59 100 2.1 2.1 1.8 0.8 64.7 62.8 0.9 1.4 2.2 27 Valjevo 28500G11 0 41 59 100 3.1 3.6 3.5 1.3 72.0 67.8 0.6 2.0 3.3 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 83 17 100 1.4 1.4 0.6 0.8 61.0 61.4 0.3 1.1 1.9 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 37 63 100 3.8 4.5 4.2 1.3 72.9 68.0 0.5 2.1 3.6 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 84 16 100 0.2 1.6 1.5 0.8 65.1 62.2 -0.7 -0.2 1.6 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 81 19 100 0.1 0.6 -0.2 0.8 64.2 61.9 -1.7 -0.2 0.6 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 37 63 100 3.6 3.8 4.3 1.2 73.3 68.4 0.8 2.0 3.2 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------