***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 02.11.2017. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 13.11.2017.-19.11.2017. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 79 21 100 3.2 3.9 4.9 1.0 63.4 61.4 1.4 2.7 3.9 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 80 20 100 2.1 3.0 4.4 0.9 61.3 59.4 0.6 1.7 3.2 30 Becej 27400G00 0 81 19 100 4.2 4.5 4.8 0.9 61.0 60.5 1.8 3.9 4.6 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 37 63 100 0.9 -0.5 2.1 0.9 59.3 60.6 -2.7 -1.1 0.4 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 81 19 100 1.6 2.7 3.1 1.1 60.8 61.8 0.6 1.2 3.1 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 36 64 100 2.4 2.5 1.2 1.4 67.5 65.6 0.2 1.5 2.4 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 80 20 100 2.4 3.2 4.5 1.0 62.3 59.9 0.6 2.0 3.3 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 83 17 100 -2.4 -2.3 1.1 1.1 60.9 61.8 -4.4 -2.9 -2.0 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 82 18 100 2.5 3.2 3.4 1.2 63.6 63.4 1.1 2.0 3.6 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 84 16 100 1.9 2.4 1.8 1.1 61.0 61.9 0.7 1.4 3.2 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 43 57 100 2.8 2.8 2.8 1.3 64.3 64.5 0.6 1.7 3.0 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 82 18 100 1.8 2.1 2.0 1.2 63.4 63.4 -0.8 1.6 2.3 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 39 61 100 2.5 2.7 2.1 1.4 68.7 65.8 0.4 1.5 2.7 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 85 15 100 2.7 2.9 2.8 0.9 58.4 59.9 0.9 2.3 3.6 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 35 65 100 2.6 2.7 3.8 1.4 68.4 66.2 1.2 1.7 2.7 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 37 63 100 3.7 3.7 2.3 1.4 66.6 65.0 1.1 2.6 3.6 30 Nis 06700G01 0 82 18 100 2.3 2.7 4.0 0.7 60.4 57.2 0.7 1.9 3.1 30 Palic 37000G16 0 84 16 100 0.8 1.3 1.0 0.9 58.7 59.7 -0.9 0.5 1.6 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 81 19 100 2.1 2.3 4.4 0.9 61.2 59.9 0.9 1.6 2.5 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 84 16 100 -1.5 -1.2 -0.1 1.0 56.2 58.7 -3.0 -1.8 -0.6 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 81 19 100 2.3 2.8 4.3 1.0 62.4 62.1 0.7 1.9 3.1 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 83 17 100 1.8 2.0 4.0 0.7 59.0 57.1 0.1 1.4 3.1 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 82 18 100 1.9 1.8 4.3 1.0 61.1 61.1 0.7 1.6 3.1 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 83 17 100 1.7 2.1 2.8 1.0 60.8 61.7 0.3 1.4 2.5 29 Valjevo 28500G11 0 40 60 100 3.6 3.1 4.1 1.1 62.9 61.7 0.8 2.3 3.3 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 42 58 100 2.5 2.1 1.8 1.3 64.5 63.6 0.5 1.5 2.2 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 38 62 100 3.9 4.1 4.6 1.1 64.6 61.8 0.4 2.2 4.1 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 35 65 100 1.9 1.9 2.5 1.1 62.5 63.0 -0.3 0.5 2.3 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 84 16 100 0.1 0.0 0.6 1.0 59.1 60.3 -1.3 -0.3 0.4 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 80 20 100 2.5 3.1 4.6 1.0 61.4 60.2 0.9 2.0 3.5 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------