***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 02.11.2017. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 06.11.2017.-12.11.2017. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 12 88 100 5.9 6.6 8.3 2.7 81.1 80.0 2.4 3.2 5.0 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 8 92 100 5.4 5.6 7.7 2.5 78.1 78.1 1.6 2.7 4.3 30 Becej 27400G00 0 16 84 100 6.9 6.8 7.9 2.2 75.7 75.8 3.9 5.0 6.2 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 43 57 100 0.8 1.1 4.4 1.4 67.3 67.3 -1.6 -0.6 0.9 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 37 63 100 4.4 3.7 5.9 1.7 67.9 68.5 0.8 2.3 3.6 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 97 3 100 1.7 1.9 2.5 0.7 54.0 54.5 0.3 1.6 3.9 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 22 78 100 5.0 4.9 7.3 2.1 72.8 73.3 1.9 3.0 4.0 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 90 10 100 -1.5 -1.0 3.1 1.2 60.5 61.0 -3.3 -1.8 -0.6 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 32 68 100 5.0 4.7 5.9 1.8 69.8 70.4 2.4 3.0 4.3 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 89 11 100 2.9 3.6 4.0 1.3 62.2 63.0 1.5 2.5 3.9 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 90 10 100 2.6 3.3 4.9 1.3 63.2 63.1 1.6 2.3 4.2 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 92 8 100 1.5 1.8 4.0 1.2 59.3 60.5 0.6 1.3 3.2 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 96 4 100 2.2 2.1 3.5 0.5 51.2 52.2 0.6 2.0 3.8 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 89 11 100 3.8 4.3 5.0 1.1 61.8 62.1 2.8 3.5 4.8 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 24 76 100 4.8 4.6 6.1 1.7 75.0 74.0 1.5 2.6 3.6 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 91 9 100 3.6 4.3 4.2 1.1 59.3 60.6 2.2 3.3 4.5 30 Nis 06700G01 0 22 78 100 5.0 5.2 7.0 2.1 73.9 73.2 1.7 3.0 3.8 30 Palic 37000G16 0 93 7 100 1.5 1.7 3.2 1.0 57.9 58.5 0.2 1.4 2.2 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 6 94 100 5.3 5.5 7.7 2.5 78.4 78.6 1.8 3.1 4.4 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 95 5 100 -1.6 -0.8 2.3 1.3 57.0 58.5 -2.8 -1.8 1.1 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 27 73 100 4.8 4.7 7.1 1.9 71.8 72.2 1.9 2.9 3.7 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 12 88 100 4.8 4.8 7.3 2.1 75.0 74.6 1.4 2.7 3.9 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 13 87 100 5.1 5.2 7.4 2.2 76.2 76.1 1.7 2.8 4.7 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 90 10 100 2.8 2.8 5.1 1.2 62.6 62.8 1.6 2.5 3.0 29 Valjevo 28500G11 0 14 86 100 5.8 6.8 7.6 2.5 79.9 78.5 1.5 2.8 4.9 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 96 4 100 2.6 2.5 3.5 0.8 54.7 55.1 0.7 2.4 4.6 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 18 82 100 6.0 6.8 7.9 2.6 78.2 77.5 1.5 2.5 4.9 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 47 53 100 2.5 2.3 4.5 1.2 64.9 65.1 0.2 1.2 2.4 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 94 6 100 1.2 1.5 2.6 1.1 57.8 58.3 -0.8 1.0 2.0 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 8 92 100 5.5 5.8 8.0 2.5 79.6 78.8 2.1 3.1 4.5 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------