***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 01.11.2018. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 05.11.2018.-02.12.2018. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 71 29 0 100 25.1 30.4 35.2 66.2 30.2 31.8 33.2 44.1 56.4 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 66 34 0 100 26.4 27.6 33.9 71.8 33.2 35.1 27.5 45.1 54.9 30 Becej 27400G00 68 32 0 100 33.6 36.1 34.8 66.8 31.1 32.1 36.7 53.8 64.9 30 Beograd 28900G14 68 32 0 100 43.7 44.7 40.7 67.9 30.7 31.8 48.0 59.9 71.7 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 68 32 0 100 32.0 29.3 37.6 65.5 25.3 29.8 34.3 45.0 66.6 30 Cuprija 39700G22 69 31 0 100 29.2 33.3 34.6 65.3 28.4 30.4 36.7 45.2 60.7 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 65 35 0 100 26.5 27.1 32.9 70.7 32.4 35.0 27.6 41.7 53.7 30 Kikinda 37800G18 71 29 0 100 45.6 47.1 41.6 67.9 26.1 29.9 50.7 73.9 106.2 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 70 30 0 100 28.6 26.0 38.1 66.2 25.1 30.3 34.8 49.1 64.5 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 72 28 0 100 33.5 33.1 40.8 67.7 25.0 30.2 37.4 54.7 70.8 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 69 31 0 100 31.7 27.3 37.4 66.5 25.7 29.9 33.4 51.0 69.6 30 Krusevac 38200G21 72 28 0 100 34.5 37.4 37.4 66.7 27.2 29.6 39.0 58.3 83.2 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 68 32 0 100 34.5 31.8 37.5 65.8 27.0 30.3 43.8 56.3 71.7 30 Leskovac 26200G08 68 32 0 100 43.6 45.5 42.7 67.2 28.1 30.7 47.2 68.7 84.2 30 Loznica 29500G14 64 36 0 100 40.2 53.9 40.8 70.1 37.0 34.6 47.2 61.5 78.3 30 Negotin 38800G20 69 31 0 100 32.2 33.3 35.7 64.6 26.1 29.6 42.2 50.9 69.0 30 Nis 06700G01 65 35 0 100 23.7 31.5 34.0 73.2 34.1 36.3 30.0 37.3 48.0 30 Palic 37000G16 70 30 0 100 37.2 35.8 42.3 67.4 25.5 30.3 46.7 62.6 80.3 30 Pozega 16800G06 66 34 0 100 30.8 28.8 34.4 70.6 32.8 34.0 28.9 48.2 64.7 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 70 30 0 100 48.3 44.7 53.6 69.1 28.5 30.9 46.8 73.1 83.2 29 Sjenica 27900G10 69 31 0 100 29.4 34.9 36.7 65.9 27.9 31.3 37.0 48.0 64.1 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 63 37 0 100 25.2 33.1 37.0 74.9 33.3 36.7 33.0 41.7 58.9 30 Sombor 26600G07 63 37 0 100 33.4 30.1 35.6 68.3 32.2 32.1 31.4 48.8 60.4 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 70 30 0 100 33.8 45.0 39.2 66.6 26.4 30.5 46.3 60.3 74.7 28 Valjevo 28500G11 67 33 0 100 29.8 31.5 39.2 65.7 29.7 31.4 34.3 44.3 56.1 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 71 29 0 100 31.3 33.7 39.5 67.6 27.0 31.4 37.4 51.0 70.7 30 Vranje 18300G04 67 33 0 100 29.0 34.3 36.6 65.8 30.1 31.5 36.0 41.5 55.1 30 Vrsac 39200G15 66 34 0 100 33.9 35.7 38.0 67.9 31.7 32.4 36.8 53.0 70.5 30 Zajecar 36700G16 71 29 0 100 57.5 54.7 45.2 67.4 24.6 29.9 71.5 101.2 112.1 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 66 34 0 100 27.1 26.9 34.1 70.3 33.7 34.4 26.3 42.5 53.5 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------