***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 01.11.2018. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 26.11.2018.-02.12.2018. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 53 47 0 100 2.8 5.9 12.2 87.8 53.4 43.3 3.5 5.4 9.6 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 54 46 0 100 2.6 5.8 11.8 99.4 58.4 46.8 1.8 4.9 8.9 30 Becej 27400G00 55 45 0 100 3.5 7.9 12.1 89.5 53.9 45.2 4.0 6.9 14.6 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 76 24 100 15.5 14.0 14.1 92.3 56.9 47.2 6.1 12.1 17.4 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 52 48 0 100 4.7 9.3 13.7 90.9 52.4 45.9 2.3 8.4 14.1 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 77 23 100 9.3 7.5 13.3 98.2 57.4 48.9 2.7 6.8 9.3 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 55 45 0 100 2.9 6.5 11.7 100.5 58.7 46.9 3.1 5.9 10.0 30 Kikinda 37800G18 52 48 0 100 6.9 12.2 14.6 92.9 53.6 45.7 7.3 10.6 19.9 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 55 45 0 100 2.5 4.2 13.6 88.0 50.9 45.2 2.0 4.0 13.5 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 54 46 0 100 4.6 7.9 14.1 89.5 50.9 45.1 3.3 7.6 16.0 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 55 45 0 100 4.0 8.4 13.5 93.1 53.5 46.3 3.7 7.7 15.2 30 Krusevac 38200G21 53 47 0 100 5.0 14.3 13.8 96.1 56.5 46.9 8.0 10.5 16.1 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 75 25 100 10.1 10.3 14.2 95.5 55.8 47.6 4.9 7.9 12.8 30 Leskovac 26200G08 54 46 0 100 4.4 9.4 14.5 88.6 52.3 44.7 3.7 8.4 16.7 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 76 24 100 17.9 20.0 14.8 98.2 61.1 49.7 3.5 12.2 21.8 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 76 24 100 11.9 10.1 13.3 93.5 55.9 47.4 3.6 9.4 15.7 30 Nis 06700G01 0 75 25 100 6.7 7.4 11.8 101.3 57.8 47.7 1.7 4.8 12.0 30 Palic 37000G16 56 44 0 100 4.5 8.5 14.3 87.4 50.9 44.7 6.3 8.2 17.4 30 Pozega 16800G06 55 45 0 100 3.2 7.1 12.0 97.1 56.4 46.5 1.2 6.6 9.7 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 55 45 0 100 7.4 15.0 18.0 88.4 52.2 45.2 6.7 14.6 24.2 29 Sjenica 27900G10 59 41 0 100 3.6 9.5 13.0 89.7 53.5 45.9 4.0 7.8 11.5 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 51 49 0 100 3.2 9.5 12.2 98.8 55.0 47.6 2.7 6.0 11.2 30 Sombor 26600G07 55 45 0 100 3.0 8.0 12.7 94.4 55.0 46.0 2.8 6.3 11.2 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 55 45 0 100 5.0 9.5 13.4 87.4 52.0 44.7 3.5 9.3 12.3 28 Valjevo 28500G11 54 46 0 100 3.5 10.7 13.8 89.2 54.0 44.4 3.0 7.1 13.5 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 77 23 100 9.1 8.8 15.0 97.7 57.7 49.4 3.7 7.4 9.6 30 Vranje 18300G04 54 46 0 100 2.5 5.5 12.8 88.4 53.0 43.1 2.3 5.4 11.0 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 76 24 100 13.7 12.4 13.4 93.9 58.3 48.5 6.0 10.0 15.7 30 Zajecar 36700G16 56 44 0 100 7.4 13.3 15.0 86.4 51.1 44.6 8.2 12.9 22.5 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 55 45 0 100 2.8 5.6 11.9 96.2 57.1 46.2 3.0 4.9 7.7 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------