***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 01.11.2018. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 19.11.2018.-25.11.2018. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 54 46 0 100 2.8 10.2 13.0 99.2 59.3 47.8 2.3 6.0 11.2 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 53 47 0 100 2.8 9.9 13.1 114.2 63.6 49.5 2.2 5.4 10.3 30 Becej 27400G00 55 45 0 100 3.4 8.2 12.7 98.5 58.3 47.7 2.1 6.8 10.8 30 Beograd 28900G14 52 48 0 100 5.5 11.5 12.5 82.4 53.2 43.1 2.8 10.5 16.3 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 54 46 0 100 3.0 11.2 12.3 83.7 54.6 43.4 2.5 6.3 17.6 30 Cuprija 39700G22 61 39 0 100 5.1 13.8 11.2 78.7 51.9 42.4 4.0 12.4 19.3 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 55 45 0 100 3.3 10.1 12.7 111.8 66.1 49.3 1.4 6.8 10.1 30 Kikinda 37800G18 58 42 0 100 9.6 24.8 14.2 95.1 58.1 46.5 4.8 19.5 29.3 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 53 47 0 100 4.5 11.9 13.0 86.8 55.9 43.9 1.3 9.4 15.7 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 57 43 0 100 3.2 9.5 13.9 92.2 56.8 45.4 2.5 7.3 16.0 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 58 42 0 100 3.2 10.2 12.2 87.3 56.0 44.1 2.4 7.4 17.7 30 Krusevac 38200G21 58 42 0 100 2.9 7.4 12.5 91.0 56.7 45.5 1.8 6.9 13.8 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 57 43 0 100 3.2 8.7 12.2 84.8 52.5 44.0 2.6 7.3 18.0 30 Leskovac 26200G08 51 49 0 100 4.8 10.8 15.8 98.0 56.5 47.7 4.9 8.8 21.8 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 76 24 100 12.1 8.8 12.9 85.9 57.9 44.4 2.9 5.9 12.1 30 Negotin 38800G20 56 44 0 100 3.8 8.8 11.6 83.2 53.8 42.9 1.0 8.5 13.9 30 Nis 06700G01 56 44 0 100 3.5 12.0 13.0 115.6 66.8 50.4 2.0 7.5 10.9 30 Palic 37000G16 54 46 0 100 4.7 11.1 14.9 95.0 55.9 46.7 2.9 8.9 15.6 30 Pozega 16800G06 51 49 0 100 4.4 10.0 13.2 111.1 62.0 49.2 2.7 7.7 11.7 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 56 44 0 100 5.1 13.0 19.9 99.8 58.5 48.1 2.1 10.8 19.4 30 Sjenica 27900G10 51 49 0 100 4.7 9.4 12.7 88.6 56.8 45.6 2.5 8.8 12.0 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 54 46 0 100 5.0 14.4 14.4 120.5 67.4 50.8 3.4 8.9 14.4 30 Sombor 26600G07 51 49 0 100 3.7 8.6 13.3 103.9 59.4 48.5 3.5 6.6 9.4 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 54 46 0 100 3.5 10.2 14.0 94.1 55.7 46.9 2.3 7.2 16.5 30 Valjevo 28500G11 52 48 0 100 2.9 8.0 13.5 90.8 56.3 46.4 1.9 5.8 10.9 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 58 42 0 100 4.8 13.4 12.6 83.5 53.1 43.9 2.6 10.5 18.7 30 Vranje 18300G04 54 46 0 100 2.1 6.2 13.2 96.6 57.9 47.1 1.8 4.5 11.3 30 Vrsac 39200G15 53 47 0 100 3.1 7.0 11.7 81.6 55.1 42.5 2.8 6.6 17.4 30 Zajecar 36700G16 54 46 0 100 7.3 16.4 16.1 95.7 54.9 47.3 5.0 13.5 29.3 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 52 48 0 100 2.9 10.5 13.1 110.2 63.5 48.8 1.8 5.8 11.0 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------