***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 01.11.2018. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 12.11.2018.-18.11.2018. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 76 24 0 100 2.8 8.1 8.0 55.7 42.5 29.8 3.6 9.0 11.8 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 70 30 0 100 2.6 3.9 6.8 53.5 43.5 30.5 2.6 7.9 17.6 30 Becej 27400G00 72 28 0 100 2.9 8.2 8.3 58.0 43.0 30.0 6.4 9.1 20.2 30 Beograd 28900G14 72 28 0 100 4.2 6.4 9.8 61.1 45.8 30.5 4.3 9.1 19.4 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 68 32 0 100 4.4 10.1 9.6 62.8 47.6 33.6 5.4 10.4 19.6 30 Cuprija 39700G22 73 27 0 100 4.1 5.4 7.9 55.6 40.8 30.4 3.2 12.1 19.7 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 71 29 0 100 2.0 5.2 6.8 54.1 43.8 31.0 3.3 5.8 13.9 30 Kikinda 37800G18 74 26 0 100 5.3 12.5 9.8 61.7 43.3 31.3 11.2 15.1 27.9 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 68 32 0 100 4.0 10.6 9.6 63.9 45.8 32.9 5.7 10.8 14.3 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 73 27 0 100 3.2 8.5 10.0 64.1 45.7 32.8 6.8 9.8 21.8 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 73 27 0 100 4.9 10.5 9.6 63.0 43.4 32.8 8.1 11.7 20.7 30 Krusevac 38200G21 74 26 0 100 4.7 9.4 8.9 59.3 41.6 30.8 3.6 12.9 26.0 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 73 27 0 100 3.8 8.2 8.8 58.0 42.0 31.8 5.9 10.4 22.7 30 Leskovac 26200G08 67 33 0 100 7.1 12.7 10.0 60.9 42.0 32.2 10.6 15.6 22.0 30 Loznica 29500G14 71 29 0 100 2.7 5.8 9.3 57.7 47.5 31.0 3.2 7.7 19.2 30 Negotin 38800G20 70 30 0 100 3.8 7.3 8.7 59.5 43.3 32.0 4.7 9.5 21.1 30 Nis 06700G01 72 28 0 100 3.8 8.9 7.2 57.8 46.9 32.2 2.7 9.8 13.4 30 Palic 37000G16 72 28 0 100 4.7 9.0 10.3 64.4 44.1 32.9 7.0 12.5 22.6 30 Pozega 16800G06 71 29 0 100 2.8 7.3 7.1 54.0 42.8 30.4 3.8 8.9 17.7 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 74 26 0 100 5.8 10.6 11.9 60.1 39.6 31.6 7.6 18.2 25.3 30 Sjenica 27900G10 72 28 0 100 3.7 5.6 9.1 61.1 44.5 31.0 3.0 9.9 16.5 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 71 29 0 100 3.6 7.7 7.9 59.3 47.0 32.9 2.7 9.6 13.8 30 Sombor 26600G07 73 27 0 100 3.4 6.4 7.7 55.4 41.1 30.4 4.4 11.3 18.9 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 70 30 0 100 4.1 10.7 9.8 63.5 44.8 32.0 5.1 11.8 18.1 30 Valjevo 28500G11 77 23 0 100 2.7 5.4 9.5 58.3 44.0 31.0 3.1 8.3 15.1 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 74 26 0 100 3.4 11.2 9.2 58.2 42.3 30.3 10.6 12.6 15.9 30 Vranje 18300G04 77 23 0 100 2.3 7.0 8.5 56.2 42.8 30.2 4.8 7.8 14.9 30 Vrsac 39200G15 72 28 0 100 2.8 7.7 9.2 60.6 46.4 31.0 3.1 8.1 17.3 30 Zajecar 36700G16 73 27 0 100 7.7 14.2 10.9 63.1 41.7 32.4 10.7 21.0 29.7 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 70 30 0 100 2.8 5.3 7.3 54.8 43.1 30.5 3.6 8.5 13.7 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------