***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 01.11.2018. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 05.11.2018.-11.11.2018. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 86 14 0 100 1.0 1.1 1.9 16.2 23.8 15.8 5.2 7.3 11.6 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 81 19 0 100 2.0 0.1 2.1 18.8 26.1 17.6 2.8 10.4 15.4 30 Becej 27400G00 86 14 0 100 1.1 0.6 1.7 15.3 22.2 15.7 3.4 7.4 15.2 30 Beograd 28900G14 76 24 0 100 2.9 1.2 4.3 32.0 25.6 24.1 1.8 10.6 15.8 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 84 16 0 100 1.4 0.2 2.0 16.2 19.9 15.7 2.6 7.9 12.4 30 Cuprija 39700G22 82 18 0 100 1.4 0.0 2.2 20.0 24.5 18.2 1.1 7.5 14.7 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 84 16 0 100 1.4 0.2 1.7 15.7 25.9 17.1 3.1 8.9 15.2 30 Kikinda 37800G18 87 13 0 100 2.7 1.1 3.0 20.2 18.9 16.3 3.9 15.4 18.9 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 83 17 0 100 1.2 0.1 2.0 16.3 19.1 15.6 1.9 7.1 12.6 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 87 13 0 100 1.8 0.4 2.7 19.8 19.4 15.9 2.0 11.9 14.6 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 88 12 0 100 0.8 0.0 2.2 16.9 19.4 15.5 0.7 6.9 13.1 30 Krusevac 38200G21 86 14 0 100 1.0 0.1 2.2 16.8 18.4 15.2 1.7 6.6 12.1 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 81 19 0 100 2.1 0.1 2.2 18.0 21.2 16.0 1.5 10.9 14.4 30 Leskovac 26200G08 93 7 0 100 1.6 1.2 2.5 16.9 19.1 15.0 4.7 10.1 19.0 30 Loznica 29500G14 68 32 0 100 2.1 2.4 3.7 31.5 33.3 27.8 2.3 6.6 12.1 30 Negotin 38800G20 84 16 0 100 1.2 0.3 2.1 16.5 22.1 16.3 1.5 7.7 12.5 30 Nis 06700G01 78 22 0 100 1.5 0.5 2.0 17.8 27.4 18.4 2.0 6.7 14.0 30 Palic 37000G16 86 14 0 100 1.6 1.1 2.7 18.3 18.4 15.2 2.9 7.4 12.7 30 Pozega 16800G06 82 18 0 100 1.7 0.3 2.0 18.1 23.5 16.7 1.5 9.2 18.8 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 84 16 0 100 2.5 1.5 3.8 22.2 20.2 17.7 5.9 8.6 16.2 30 Sjenica 27900G10 82 18 0 100 1.5 1.1 1.9 16.2 21.7 15.6 3.0 7.0 11.9 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 78 22 0 100 2.2 0.4 2.4 20.9 26.0 18.4 1.8 10.0 16.6 30 Sombor 26600G07 87 13 0 100 1.3 0.2 1.9 15.6 20.3 15.1 2.1 9.6 16.0 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 88 12 0 100 1.7 0.9 2.1 15.6 19.3 14.8 2.0 8.9 13.7 30 Valjevo 28500G11 86 14 0 100 0.6 0.8 2.3 18.1 24.3 17.6 1.2 4.2 11.4 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 82 18 0 100 1.5 0.2 2.7 22.3 23.9 18.8 1.7 8.6 12.3 30 Vranje 18300G04 85 15 0 100 0.9 0.4 2.0 16.2 24.6 16.8 2.2 5.7 12.1 30 Vrsac 39200G15 73 27 0 100 1.2 0.6 3.7 30.1 29.0 24.8 0.9 4.5 12.8 30 Zajecar 36700G16 84 16 0 100 3.0 2.1 3.2 20.5 18.8 16.3 5.4 9.9 24.3 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 84 16 0 100 1.4 0.1 1.9 16.9 23.4 16.5 2.3 8.7 13.1 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------