***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 01.11.2018. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 05.11.2018.-02.12.2018. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 29 71 100 11.8 13.0 11.4 2.2 81.3 76.0 8.4 9.9 11.1 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 25 75 100 11.3 13.0 11.7 2.4 85.9 79.0 7.5 9.5 10.6 30 Becej 27400G00 0 28 72 100 12.2 13.5 11.9 2.3 82.5 76.6 8.5 11.1 11.6 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 26 74 100 5.7 6.5 8.3 1.8 80.7 72.6 3.1 4.2 4.8 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 29 71 100 12.1 12.8 9.8 1.9 77.8 72.4 8.8 10.4 11.8 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 35 65 100 11.1 11.5 9.0 1.8 74.8 70.8 8.9 9.7 11.3 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 25 75 100 11.1 12.6 11.6 2.4 84.3 78.9 7.1 9.5 10.4 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 30 70 100 4.5 5.1 9.2 1.9 77.4 72.7 2.2 2.8 4.2 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 29 71 100 12.9 13.2 10.6 1.9 76.8 72.6 8.5 11.3 12.0 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 31 69 100 11.9 12.4 9.9 1.9 76.3 72.0 8.2 10.4 11.7 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 33 67 100 12.4 13.1 10.1 1.9 77.7 72.8 8.9 10.8 12.1 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 30 70 100 11.9 12.6 9.7 2.0 80.3 74.0 9.1 10.7 11.9 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 34 66 100 12.0 13.0 10.0 2.0 80.3 73.5 9.8 10.4 12.4 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 32 68 100 12.7 13.4 11.2 2.1 77.4 72.5 8.8 11.2 12.3 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 23 77 100 10.1 11.2 9.7 2.0 85.9 76.6 7.8 8.6 10.1 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 32 68 100 12.8 13.7 9.8 2.0 78.8 73.0 10.1 11.0 12.7 30 Nis 06700G01 0 22 78 100 10.9 12.2 11.4 2.3 85.0 78.8 6.8 9.3 10.1 30 Palic 37000G16 0 33 67 100 10.5 11.0 9.8 1.9 75.2 71.4 7.3 9.2 10.3 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 25 75 100 11.6 13.6 11.9 2.5 85.6 78.7 7.7 10.0 11.0 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 33 67 100 9.1 9.7 8.2 1.8 77.1 72.0 6.9 7.9 8.3 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 29 71 100 12.4 13.0 11.2 1.9 76.9 72.9 8.6 10.9 11.7 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 24 76 100 11.4 12.2 11.4 2.2 83.0 77.1 7.2 9.8 10.7 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 26 74 100 11.8 13.2 12.2 2.5 84.9 77.9 7.5 10.3 11.1 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 31 69 100 13.2 13.7 11.1 2.1 78.0 72.8 9.8 12.1 12.5 28 Valjevo 28500G11 0 29 71 100 10.8 11.4 9.9 1.9 78.0 73.3 8.1 9.5 10.6 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 25 75 100 11.5 12.1 9.3 2.1 83.1 76.4 9.2 10.2 11.2 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 28 72 100 11.9 12.6 10.9 2.1 79.5 75.1 8.9 10.3 11.6 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 25 75 100 10.5 11.2 9.0 1.9 81.6 73.4 8.0 9.0 10.2 29 Zajecar 36700G16 0 34 66 100 8.7 8.8 9.3 1.9 75.7 71.3 5.5 7.3 8.3 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 26 74 100 11.2 12.8 11.7 2.4 85.1 78.6 7.7 9.5 10.6 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------