***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 01.11.2018. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 26.11.2018.-02.12.2018. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 56 44 0 100 5.4 8.8 7.3 0.8 58.6 56.7 5.3 8.1 9.9 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 55 45 0 100 5.1 8.7 7.2 0.8 59.6 56.8 5.7 7.6 9.8 30 Becej 27400G00 55 45 0 100 6.8 10.4 7.7 0.9 60.4 56.5 7.1 9.8 10.7 30 Beograd 28900G14 52 48 0 100 0.9 3.3 4.8 0.8 59.1 57.2 1.2 2.7 3.6 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 51 49 0 100 6.8 10.0 5.7 0.8 58.2 56.5 6.2 9.1 10.3 30 Cuprija 39700G22 52 48 0 100 6.0 9.1 5.4 0.8 55.2 55.4 6.4 8.0 9.7 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 53 47 0 100 5.5 9.0 7.2 0.8 60.6 56.9 4.7 7.8 9.4 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 75 25 100 2.7 2.3 5.2 0.6 54.5 54.4 0.2 2.1 3.0 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 53 47 0 100 7.2 10.3 6.5 0.7 57.0 55.8 7.1 9.9 11.3 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 52 48 0 100 6.5 9.4 5.8 0.7 55.0 54.9 7.0 8.5 10.4 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 51 49 0 100 6.5 10.4 5.8 0.8 57.7 56.5 6.4 8.8 11.3 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 76 24 100 9.4 9.9 5.6 0.7 56.6 55.7 6.9 8.7 10.4 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 77 23 100 9.4 9.6 5.5 0.8 55.7 56.3 6.6 8.5 11.3 30 Leskovac 26200G08 53 47 0 100 6.8 9.5 6.7 0.5 53.0 53.3 7.7 9.4 11.0 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 34 66 100 7.8 7.7 5.6 0.8 59.0 57.7 6.0 7.4 7.9 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 75 25 100 10.0 11.1 5.7 0.9 58.5 57.0 6.9 9.2 11.7 30 Nis 06700G01 59 41 0 100 4.6 7.7 7.0 0.7 58.3 55.7 4.5 7.2 8.6 30 Palic 37000G16 0 75 25 100 7.0 6.5 5.8 0.6 52.4 54.0 5.3 6.4 7.6 30 Pozega 16800G06 54 46 0 100 5.5 9.2 7.4 0.8 59.7 56.6 6.1 8.0 9.7 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 76 24 100 6.2 6.1 4.1 0.4 52.3 53.1 2.9 5.7 7.2 29 Sjenica 27900G10 54 46 0 100 6.8 10.4 7.0 0.7 57.3 55.8 7.0 9.4 10.7 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 59 41 0 100 4.7 8.0 6.9 0.6 55.9 55.0 5.3 7.4 8.9 30 Sombor 26600G07 54 46 0 100 5.7 9.4 7.7 0.8 59.1 56.0 6.4 7.8 9.7 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 52 48 0 100 7.7 10.9 6.7 0.6 55.2 54.6 7.8 10.7 11.4 28 Valjevo 28500G11 55 45 0 100 5.6 8.8 5.8 0.7 58.8 56.4 6.1 8.4 9.3 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 76 24 100 8.7 8.3 5.3 0.8 55.8 56.8 6.3 7.9 9.7 30 Vranje 18300G04 57 43 0 100 6.5 10.5 6.8 0.8 59.6 56.6 5.9 9.3 10.9 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 35 65 100 8.6 8.1 5.2 0.8 59.0 57.2 6.2 7.5 8.6 29 Zajecar 36700G16 0 75 25 100 6.5 5.9 5.2 0.5 51.3 53.3 3.4 5.8 7.0 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 52 48 0 100 5.5 9.1 7.3 0.9 60.6 57.1 5.8 7.9 10.0 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------