***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 01.11.2018. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 19.11.2018.-25.11.2018. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 78 22 100 9.6 8.8 9.2 0.8 56.7 57.2 6.2 8.5 10.9 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 51 49 0 100 5.7 9.6 9.2 0.8 58.7 56.9 6.5 8.8 10.8 30 Becej 27400G00 0 76 24 100 10.9 10.5 9.5 0.8 56.6 56.5 7.1 10.1 11.7 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 75 25 100 4.9 5.0 6.9 0.9 58.5 59.3 1.2 4.2 5.9 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 76 24 100 10.6 10.7 7.7 0.6 56.0 56.2 6.5 9.8 11.4 30 Cuprija 39700G22 53 47 0 100 5.4 8.6 7.2 0.5 52.2 54.2 6.3 8.6 11.4 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 52 48 0 100 5.5 9.9 9.2 0.8 58.8 56.9 6.3 8.6 10.5 30 Kikinda 37800G18 52 48 0 100 -0.4 2.8 7.0 0.4 51.6 54.2 1.0 2.5 4.9 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 52 48 0 100 7.0 10.9 8.3 0.5 53.8 54.8 8.1 10.2 11.9 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 53 47 0 100 6.4 9.6 7.6 0.4 52.0 53.7 7.3 9.6 10.9 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 52 48 0 100 6.5 10.1 7.8 0.6 54.9 55.8 7.9 9.9 11.7 30 Krusevac 38200G21 54 46 0 100 6.5 10.5 7.6 0.6 55.0 55.9 7.9 9.5 11.3 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 52 48 0 100 6.8 10.7 7.4 0.7 55.1 56.1 7.4 10.1 11.9 30 Leskovac 26200G08 60 40 0 100 5.9 10.7 8.5 0.2 52.0 52.1 8.4 10.6 12.8 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 34 66 100 10.1 9.2 7.7 1.1 61.3 62.3 4.6 7.8 9.5 30 Negotin 38800G20 52 48 0 100 7.3 11.4 7.7 0.8 57.4 56.8 7.9 10.3 12.2 30 Nis 06700G01 57 43 0 100 5.0 9.3 9.0 0.6 58.0 55.8 6.1 8.6 10.2 30 Palic 37000G16 54 46 0 100 5.3 8.1 7.5 0.2 50.7 51.9 5.6 8.1 9.6 30 Pozega 16800G06 51 49 0 100 5.5 9.3 9.4 0.8 58.3 56.6 7.0 8.9 11.4 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 75 25 100 7.6 6.8 5.9 0.3 51.1 53.0 3.8 6.7 7.8 30 Sjenica 27900G10 52 48 0 100 6.9 11.2 8.8 0.6 55.3 55.2 6.9 10.1 11.4 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 55 45 0 100 5.5 9.2 8.9 0.5 57.9 55.2 6.8 9.0 10.9 30 Sombor 26600G07 52 48 0 100 5.5 9.1 9.5 0.7 57.0 55.6 6.9 8.8 11.3 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 55 45 0 100 7.1 11.1 8.5 0.3 52.2 52.8 7.6 10.7 12.8 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 76 24 100 9.7 9.6 7.7 0.7 57.5 56.9 5.7 8.8 10.9 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 51 49 0 100 6.2 10.2 7.3 0.8 58.4 58.5 6.9 9.0 10.5 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 77 23 100 10.3 10.5 8.7 0.7 57.1 56.7 7.1 9.3 11.9 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 35 65 100 10.4 9.3 7.3 1.0 59.7 59.9 5.4 8.8 10.1 29 Zajecar 36700G16 54 46 0 100 3.6 7.1 7.0 0.2 50.6 51.7 3.7 6.9 7.9 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 76 24 100 9.5 9.6 9.3 0.8 57.8 57.5 6.5 8.6 11.1 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------