***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 01.11.2018. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 05.11.2018.-11.11.2018. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 4 96 100 14.6 17.2 15.6 3.3 86.7 85.0 11.3 12.4 13.5 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 2 98 100 14.4 17.8 16.7 4.2 94.5 91.7 10.6 11.5 12.7 30 Becej 27400G00 0 4 96 100 16.1 18.1 16.5 3.7 87.0 86.3 11.1 12.6 13.9 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 41 59 100 7.4 7.9 11.0 1.9 74.5 71.8 4.7 6.5 7.2 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 34 66 100 14.4 14.3 13.6 2.4 76.0 74.6 11.1 12.5 13.3 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 35 65 100 13.9 14.8 12.5 2.4 72.3 71.6 9.7 11.8 13.6 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 1 99 100 14.4 17.5 16.5 4.1 92.2 90.5 10.2 11.7 12.4 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 28 72 100 6.9 7.4 13.2 2.9 78.9 77.5 3.3 5.6 6.8 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 25 75 100 15.8 17.1 14.8 2.7 79.8 78.0 11.3 13.2 14.0 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 30 70 100 14.0 14.7 14.0 2.9 77.6 76.5 10.7 12.5 13.4 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 31 69 100 15.0 15.4 14.5 2.6 76.1 74.9 11.0 12.6 14.3 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 23 77 100 14.7 16.9 13.8 2.9 82.1 79.3 10.4 12.6 14.2 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 21 79 100 15.1 15.8 15.0 3.0 77.5 77.5 10.6 12.2 14.0 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 6 94 100 16.7 17.3 16.3 3.7 84.6 83.1 11.3 12.6 14.8 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 17 83 100 12.3 13.4 13.6 2.5 85.0 80.7 10.5 11.5 12.1 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 30 70 100 15.1 15.4 13.9 2.5 74.5 74.0 11.2 13.1 14.8 30 Nis 06700G01 0 0 100 100 13.4 16.8 16.4 4.3 93.9 92.5 10.2 10.9 12.5 30 Palic 37000G16 0 31 69 100 13.3 14.2 13.9 3.1 77.9 77.3 9.5 11.2 13.1 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 1 99 100 15.3 18.1 16.9 4.3 94.8 91.4 11.0 11.8 13.0 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 34 66 100 11.9 13.0 12.4 3.0 76.3 76.5 7.9 9.6 12.0 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 14 86 100 15.5 16.5 15.5 2.8 81.0 79.6 11.0 12.8 13.7 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 0 100 100 14.6 17.5 16.3 4.0 92.1 90.6 10.6 11.4 13.5 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 0 100 100 15.6 18.6 17.1 4.4 94.8 91.1 10.9 11.7 13.6 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 13 87 100 16.3 17.4 15.9 3.5 83.1 82.0 12.0 13.0 14.9 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 19 81 100 13.6 14.5 14.1 2.6 81.4 78.6 10.2 11.9 13.0 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 11 89 100 15.0 16.3 13.3 3.1 84.7 82.8 10.9 12.2 14.0 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 8 92 100 14.9 16.1 15.1 3.1 83.1 82.2 10.6 12.5 13.6 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 34 66 100 12.6 12.8 12.2 2.1 75.9 73.1 10.3 11.8 12.6 29 Zajecar 36700G16 0 28 72 100 11.4 12.5 13.6 3.2 77.5 77.6 6.6 8.6 11.5 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 2 98 100 14.7 17.2 16.5 4.0 92.6 90.0 10.1 11.9 12.7 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------