***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 01.11.2018. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 05.11.2018.-02.12.2018. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 39 61 100 3.8 4.0 4.5 1.4 71.6 68.3 1.0 2.6 3.6 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 41 59 100 3.1 3.3 4.1 1.3 70.7 68.0 0.5 1.8 3.2 30 Becej 27400G00 0 42 58 100 4.8 5.6 4.5 1.4 73.6 69.6 2.2 3.7 5.0 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 42 58 100 -0.3 -0.1 1.5 1.1 68.1 66.9 -2.9 -1.8 -0.2 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 82 18 100 1.8 2.0 2.3 1.0 66.8 65.5 0.6 1.4 1.9 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 81 19 100 1.2 1.6 0.1 0.9 63.7 63.2 0.0 0.8 1.6 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 39 61 100 3.1 3.4 4.1 1.3 70.5 67.8 0.6 1.6 3.0 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 43 57 100 -2.3 -2.3 0.4 1.0 66.2 64.6 -3.8 -3.4 -2.3 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 82 18 100 2.5 2.9 2.5 1.0 67.2 65.2 1.2 2.1 2.8 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 81 19 100 1.8 2.8 1.1 1.0 67.4 64.7 0.7 1.4 2.8 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 83 17 100 1.6 2.0 1.6 0.9 64.6 63.3 0.3 1.2 2.1 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 81 19 100 0.7 1.3 0.9 0.9 63.9 62.4 -0.7 0.2 1.5 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 80 20 100 1.4 1.4 0.4 0.5 54.9 57.1 0.3 1.0 1.7 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 42 58 100 3.3 3.3 2.3 1.1 68.4 65.1 1.3 2.3 3.3 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 37 63 100 2.8 2.9 2.7 1.1 71.5 68.4 0.6 1.8 2.8 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 81 19 100 2.5 2.3 0.9 0.7 60.0 59.8 1.0 2.1 3.0 30 Nis 06700G01 0 41 59 100 2.8 3.0 3.9 1.2 69.0 66.9 0.6 1.6 2.8 30 Palic 37000G16 0 82 18 100 0.2 0.8 0.5 1.0 66.7 63.2 -0.7 0.0 0.7 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 41 59 100 3.1 3.6 4.1 1.3 72.7 69.2 0.9 1.9 3.1 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 42 58 100 -1.1 -1.3 -0.5 1.0 64.4 62.9 -3.1 -2.0 -1.0 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 83 17 100 2.2 3.1 3.6 1.1 68.2 66.1 0.9 1.8 2.6 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 42 58 100 2.6 3.0 4.0 1.3 72.2 68.8 0.3 1.5 2.7 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 40 60 100 2.8 3.3 4.1 1.4 73.7 70.4 0.9 1.8 2.8 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 45 55 100 2.2 2.5 2.1 1.1 69.1 65.7 0.9 1.3 2.4 27 Valjevo 28500G11 0 41 59 100 3.1 3.7 3.5 1.3 72.1 68.0 0.8 2.0 3.5 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 80 20 100 1.6 1.8 0.4 0.7 59.7 59.6 0.4 1.2 2.2 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 42 58 100 3.7 4.1 4.0 1.2 69.7 66.3 0.6 2.3 3.8 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 81 19 100 0.4 1.7 1.6 0.9 65.8 64.5 -0.5 -0.1 1.7 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 43 57 100 0.8 1.0 0.1 1.0 67.0 63.7 -1.7 -0.1 0.9 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 42 58 100 3.5 3.6 4.3 1.4 72.6 69.2 0.9 2.1 3.5 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------