***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 01.11.2018. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 19.11.2018.-25.11.2018. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 77 23 100 1.9 0.6 2.7 0.2 48.0 51.7 -0.4 1.0 3.4 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 76 24 100 2.1 0.9 2.3 0.1 47.5 51.2 -0.4 1.5 3.0 30 Becej 27400G00 0 77 23 100 3.4 2.5 2.8 0.4 49.7 54.0 1.0 2.6 5.1 30 Beograd 28900G14 55 45 0 100 -4.9 -2.7 -0.1 0.2 45.5 51.6 -5.3 -2.3 -0.2 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 78 22 100 1.0 0.0 0.4 0.1 45.5 51.3 -0.8 0.1 1.8 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 76 24 100 0.3 -1.1 -1.2 0.2 45.7 51.7 -1.9 -0.7 1.5 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 76 24 100 2.5 1.4 2.4 0.1 47.6 51.0 -0.3 1.8 3.3 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 78 22 100 -3.1 -3.9 -0.9 0.3 48.1 53.5 -5.8 -3.8 -1.7 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 79 21 100 2.1 1.1 0.9 0.2 48.3 52.2 -0.1 1.4 3.0 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 79 21 100 1.3 0.3 -0.3 0.3 48.9 53.1 -1.6 0.5 1.9 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 78 22 100 0.9 -0.3 -0.1 0.2 46.5 51.8 -1.4 0.1 1.2 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 78 22 100 0.1 -1.1 -0.6 0.3 47.1 52.7 -2.0 -0.6 1.2 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 76 24 100 0.5 -0.5 -0.9 0.1 44.7 50.4 -1.3 -0.3 1.5 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 78 22 100 1.3 0.5 0.9 0.4 52.1 54.5 -0.3 0.5 3.6 30 Loznica 29500G14 52 48 0 100 -0.3 0.9 0.9 0.2 43.2 51.9 -0.2 1.4 2.7 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 77 23 100 1.6 0.8 -0.6 0.1 44.9 50.9 -0.7 0.9 2.6 30 Nis 06700G01 0 76 24 100 2.2 0.6 2.2 -0.1 45.2 49.5 -0.1 1.6 2.6 30 Palic 37000G16 0 78 22 100 -0.3 -0.6 -0.9 0.4 50.4 53.7 -2.3 -0.7 0.3 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 76 24 100 2.2 1.4 2.3 0.2 49.1 52.4 -0.1 1.6 2.8 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 53 47 0 100 -6.2 -3.9 -2.0 0.2 46.8 52.7 -5.6 -3.5 -1.4 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 77 23 100 2.0 0.9 2.0 0.3 47.8 52.4 -0.8 1.1 2.0 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 51 49 0 100 -0.7 0.9 2.2 0.1 47.7 51.7 -0.4 1.0 2.7 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 77 23 100 1.2 0.9 2.4 0.4 51.6 54.0 -0.8 0.5 2.9 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 79 21 100 0.5 -0.3 0.5 0.4 51.6 54.5 -1.3 -0.3 2.0 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 78 22 100 2.0 1.1 1.5 0.2 46.5 51.7 -0.5 1.3 2.6 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 52 48 0 100 -1.1 0.4 -1.0 0.1 46.7 50.7 -1.5 0.6 2.8 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 77 23 100 1.6 0.2 2.2 0.1 46.0 50.8 -0.7 0.5 4.2 30 Vrsac 39200G15 55 45 0 100 -1.6 -0.9 -0.1 0.1 43.8 51.4 -1.7 -0.1 1.3 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 76 24 100 -0.4 -1.3 -1.2 0.4 49.9 53.7 -4.0 -1.3 0.4 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 76 24 100 2.6 2.0 2.5 0.2 48.7 52.3 -0.2 2.0 3.9 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------