***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 01.11.2018. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 05.11.2018.-11.11.2018. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 5 95 100 7.4 8.0 8.9 3.2 83.3 83.4 2.3 3.4 5.4 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 0 100 100 6.1 6.7 8.5 3.3 83.9 84.6 1.6 2.7 4.3 30 Becej 27400G00 0 2 98 100 8.0 8.4 8.7 2.9 83.8 83.1 4.0 5.2 6.3 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 10 90 100 1.8 2.5 5.3 2.3 82.1 80.9 -1.2 -0.2 1.0 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 15 85 100 5.4 6.3 6.6 2.3 79.6 78.4 0.6 2.5 4.0 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 36 64 100 3.7 3.8 3.4 1.7 69.7 70.5 0.5 2.3 3.2 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 4 96 100 6.0 7.2 8.4 3.2 83.5 83.5 1.5 2.8 3.9 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 25 75 100 0.2 0.6 4.0 1.9 74.9 73.9 -3.3 -1.5 -0.3 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 8 92 100 6.6 7.5 6.6 2.4 82.8 80.7 2.9 3.3 4.0 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 23 77 100 5.6 6.0 4.8 2.0 77.0 75.5 1.7 3.0 4.1 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 32 68 100 5.5 5.1 5.6 1.8 74.0 73.3 0.8 2.8 3.9 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 41 59 100 3.8 3.0 4.5 1.6 69.5 68.7 0.3 1.5 2.6 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 91 9 100 2.3 2.4 3.6 0.7 57.0 57.3 0.7 2.0 3.8 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 27 73 100 5.7 6.1 5.8 1.8 75.5 73.3 2.8 3.7 5.2 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 3 97 100 5.6 8.3 7.0 2.7 90.0 88.1 1.2 3.0 3.9 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 88 12 100 4.0 4.3 4.4 1.3 64.0 64.8 2.2 3.7 4.4 30 Nis 06700G01 0 2 98 100 6.0 6.6 8.0 3.2 83.8 83.9 1.9 2.9 3.8 30 Palic 37000G16 0 39 61 100 2.9 3.1 4.0 1.6 69.8 69.7 0.6 1.4 3.0 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 0 100 100 5.9 6.7 8.5 3.2 84.8 85.3 1.8 3.0 4.4 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 35 65 100 1.4 1.6 3.2 1.8 71.7 70.3 -3.0 -1.2 0.2 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 8 92 100 6.1 6.8 7.7 2.5 81.8 80.4 2.1 3.1 3.8 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 1 99 100 5.4 6.2 8.2 3.1 85.2 84.9 1.6 2.3 3.6 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 2 98 100 6.0 6.6 8.2 3.0 85.4 85.5 2.0 3.0 4.5 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 25 75 100 4.4 4.9 5.9 2.0 75.7 74.7 1.6 2.7 3.6 29 Valjevo 28500G11 0 6 94 100 7.1 7.6 8.1 2.9 82.5 82.3 2.1 2.6 4.8 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 90 10 100 2.8 3.0 3.7 1.1 61.5 61.8 0.6 2.4 3.8 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 11 89 100 6.9 7.4 8.3 2.9 80.7 79.9 1.5 3.1 5.3 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 19 81 100 3.5 4.6 5.4 2.1 80.0 78.7 0.2 1.3 2.6 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 29 71 100 3.3 3.3 3.6 1.8 73.6 72.5 -0.1 0.7 2.3 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 1 99 100 6.3 7.3 8.9 3.4 84.3 85.1 1.8 3.1 5.0 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------