***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 01.11.2012. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 05.11.2012.-02.12.2012. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 34 66 100 9999.0 0.0 66.8 131.1 77.3 69.4 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 40 60 100 57.6 60.5 60.5 123.3 73.9 65.5 27.5 45.1 54.9 30 Becej 27400G00 0 35 65 100 68.4 76.0 65.4 129.4 76.7 68.7 36.7 53.8 64.9 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 43 57 100 72.6 79.5 72.9 133.9 76.2 69.0 48.0 59.9 71.7 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 46 54 100 65.8 82.6 70.7 130.7 75.5 67.7 34.3 45.0 66.6 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 35 65 100 65.8 75.5 70.7 135.8 76.0 69.1 36.7 45.2 60.7 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 38 62 100 57.2 59.3 61.8 125.3 73.9 66.1 27.6 41.7 53.7 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 39 61 100 102.8 118.7 75.6 126.8 73.4 67.0 50.7 73.9 106.2 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 42 58 100 61.5 68.9 68.4 125.9 74.8 66.0 34.8 49.1 64.5 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 41 59 100 69.6 75.4 73.2 125.2 74.2 66.2 37.4 54.7 70.8 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 42 58 100 73.0 83.7 68.1 131.7 75.3 67.9 33.4 51.0 69.6 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 37 63 100 79.6 87.9 68.6 132.2 74.3 68.3 39.0 58.3 83.2 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 37 63 100 80.5 81.8 70.1 133.1 73.1 68.6 43.8 56.3 71.7 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 34 66 100 91.0 87.9 72.8 123.4 71.9 66.2 47.2 68.7 84.2 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 33 67 100 86.9 96.7 72.4 134.9 77.3 69.5 47.2 61.5 78.3 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 39 61 100 71.9 80.5 68.9 135.9 75.4 69.3 42.2 50.9 69.0 30 Nis 06700G01 0 40 60 100 59.9 49.6 57.1 117.3 67.8 61.6 30.0 37.3 48.0 30 Palic 37000G16 0 39 61 100 76.6 84.6 79.4 122.5 74.1 65.9 46.7 62.6 80.3 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 41 59 100 64.7 69.8 61.0 123.3 74.1 65.8 28.9 48.2 64.7 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 37 63 100 93.5 94.9 99.5 120.0 71.7 65.1 46.8 73.1 83.2 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 34 66 100 62.4 69.7 68.5 130.6 75.9 68.7 37.0 48.0 64.1 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 82 18 100 48.4 57.9 57.9 115.1 65.3 60.3 33.0 41.7 58.9 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 35 65 100 61.6 67.4 62.9 123.2 74.4 66.1 31.4 48.8 60.4 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 36 64 100 75.3 77.4 72.1 125.4 75.0 66.9 46.3 60.3 74.7 28 Valjevo 28500G11 0 30 70 100 57.3 63.3 75.3 134.4 79.2 71.7 34.3 44.3 56.1 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 43 57 100 65.6 76.4 69.1 130.2 74.9 67.3 37.4 51.0 70.7 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 31 69 100 58.3 66.0 71.9 132.3 78.7 70.7 36.0 41.5 55.1 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 39 61 100 73.9 87.2 71.3 136.5 77.0 69.5 36.8 53.0 70.5 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 40 60 100 112.2 115.7 86.1 119.7 71.8 64.9 71.5 101.2 112.1 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 37 63 100 56.7 63.9 62.7 127.1 75.2 67.6 26.3 42.5 53.5 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------