***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 01.11.2012. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 26.11.2012.-02.12.2012. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 54 46 0 100 9999.0 0.0 9.8 89.7 54.4 47.4 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 51 49 0 100 2.7 5.3 8.8 84.8 53.4 46.1 1.8 4.9 8.9 30 Becej 27400G00 0 75 25 100 10.0 8.2 9.7 89.6 54.8 46.9 4.0 6.9 14.6 30 Beograd 28900G14 55 45 0 100 6.7 14.5 11.9 102.6 60.5 47.4 6.1 12.1 17.4 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 55 45 0 100 4.5 9.8 10.9 94.0 55.1 46.8 2.3 8.4 14.1 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 76 24 100 9.4 7.3 11.5 94.5 56.4 47.6 2.7 6.8 9.3 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 57 43 0 100 2.8 6.1 9.0 84.8 53.4 46.3 3.1 5.9 10.0 30 Kikinda 37800G18 52 48 0 100 6.9 12.8 11.9 92.3 55.5 47.3 7.3 10.6 19.9 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 54 46 0 100 2.5 4.5 10.5 89.6 53.8 46.7 2.0 4.0 13.5 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 51 49 0 100 4.7 8.3 11.4 90.2 52.8 47.0 3.3 7.6 16.0 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 55 45 0 100 4.0 10.1 10.6 96.2 57.4 47.7 3.7 7.7 15.2 30 Krusevac 38200G21 52 48 0 100 5.1 14.6 10.9 95.5 57.8 47.3 8.0 10.5 16.1 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 52 48 0 100 4.0 9.6 11.5 94.9 54.0 47.3 4.9 7.9 12.8 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 78 22 100 11.0 8.8 11.7 91.1 51.2 48.0 3.7 8.4 16.7 30 Loznica 29500G14 51 49 0 100 6.2 22.1 13.0 118.6 68.9 50.8 3.5 12.2 21.8 30 Negotin 38800G20 52 48 0 100 4.6 9.8 11.0 98.2 55.0 48.0 3.6 9.4 15.7 30 Nis 06700G01 55 45 0 100 2.6 6.1 8.7 85.1 54.2 45.3 1.7 4.8 12.0 30 Palic 37000G16 0 77 23 100 11.3 7.8 12.7 89.2 48.8 46.9 6.3 8.2 17.4 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 76 24 100 9.2 6.8 9.0 85.9 53.6 46.3 1.2 6.6 9.7 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 77 23 100 17.2 15.0 15.9 90.4 52.4 47.7 6.7 14.6 24.2 29 Sjenica 27900G10 57 43 0 100 3.7 9.6 10.2 90.0 54.1 46.2 4.0 7.8 11.5 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 51 49 0 100 3.2 9.5 9.1 86.9 55.0 45.9 2.7 6.0 11.2 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 77 23 100 8.2 7.8 9.5 88.4 53.3 46.9 2.8 6.3 11.2 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 77 23 100 12.3 9.2 11.3 89.8 49.5 46.8 3.5 9.3 12.3 28 Valjevo 28500G11 54 46 0 100 3.5 11.1 11.7 95.9 54.8 47.5 3.0 7.1 13.5 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 56 44 0 100 3.6 9.1 11.7 93.8 62.0 47.7 3.7 7.4 9.6 30 Vranje 18300G04 56 44 0 100 2.4 5.4 10.9 90.8 52.1 47.1 2.3 5.4 11.0 30 Vrsac 39200G15 53 47 0 100 4.9 14.1 11.8 106.0 62.2 48.2 6.0 10.0 15.7 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 77 23 100 16.6 12.7 13.9 88.9 49.8 47.1 8.2 12.9 22.5 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 51 49 0 100 2.9 5.6 9.0 86.0 55.0 46.7 3.0 4.9 7.7 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------