***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 01.11.2012. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 19.11.2012.-25.11.2012. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 51 49 0 100 9999.0 0.0 13.8 90.2 49.9 48.8 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 55 45 0 100 2.6 5.2 12.0 84.2 47.8 46.5 2.2 5.4 10.3 30 Becej 27400G00 0 76 24 100 8.5 7.7 14.4 92.6 52.1 48.8 2.1 6.8 10.8 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 79 21 100 13.3 13.2 17.2 106.1 61.8 51.9 2.8 10.5 16.3 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 77 23 100 10.0 12.4 16.3 100.1 57.6 49.7 2.5 6.3 17.6 30 Cuprija 39700G22 53 47 0 100 6.1 15.1 15.8 104.0 59.5 50.8 4.0 12.4 19.3 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 54 46 0 100 3.3 5.5 11.9 84.7 47.2 46.7 1.4 6.8 10.1 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 76 24 100 23.0 24.3 17.2 97.6 57.0 48.6 4.8 19.5 29.3 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 54 46 0 100 4.4 11.0 15.9 94.9 53.6 48.3 1.3 9.4 15.7 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 52 48 0 100 3.6 9.0 16.9 95.5 55.7 47.9 2.5 7.3 16.0 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 76 24 100 12.4 11.7 15.3 100.6 59.4 49.3 2.4 7.4 17.7 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 77 23 100 12.5 7.5 15.3 102.5 58.7 49.8 1.8 6.9 13.8 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 51 49 0 100 3.6 11.2 15.3 102.0 55.9 49.5 2.6 7.3 18.0 30 Leskovac 26200G08 58 42 0 100 4.3 9.3 17.0 93.2 53.0 46.4 4.9 8.8 21.8 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 78 22 100 11.6 11.8 17.5 110.9 65.0 54.3 2.9 5.9 12.1 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 76 24 100 12.1 9.9 15.0 103.8 59.4 50.0 1.0 8.5 13.9 30 Nis 06700G01 56 44 0 100 3.5 5.0 10.3 74.8 44.6 44.3 2.0 7.5 10.9 30 Palic 37000G16 61 39 0 100 4.1 9.9 18.3 92.9 53.1 46.5 2.9 8.9 15.6 30 Pozega 16800G06 54 46 0 100 4.2 7.7 12.7 86.2 49.2 46.9 2.7 7.7 11.7 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 60 40 0 100 4.7 10.7 22.2 90.6 49.9 46.5 2.1 10.8 19.4 30 Sjenica 27900G10 52 48 0 100 4.6 9.2 15.2 93.3 53.6 48.6 2.5 8.8 12.0 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 56 44 0 100 4.9 7.9 11.0 73.9 47.0 43.7 3.4 8.9 14.4 30 Sombor 26600G07 52 48 0 100 3.7 7.2 14.2 90.5 51.5 47.5 3.5 6.6 9.4 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 58 42 0 100 3.2 8.4 16.7 94.1 53.2 46.9 2.3 7.2 16.5 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 76 24 100 8.7 7.6 16.3 97.3 55.4 50.1 1.9 5.8 10.9 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 79 21 100 14.1 14.4 15.2 100.3 55.2 49.1 2.6 10.5 18.7 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 76 24 100 8.0 4.6 14.9 92.7 51.3 49.0 1.8 4.5 11.3 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 77 23 100 10.3 16.7 16.9 109.7 65.2 52.9 2.8 6.6 17.4 30 Zajecar 36700G16 61 39 0 100 6.5 13.6 19.4 90.7 50.4 45.8 5.0 13.5 29.3 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 52 48 0 100 2.9 5.6 12.9 88.5 48.8 47.9 1.8 5.8 11.0 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------