***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 01.11.2012. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 12.11.2012.-18.11.2012. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 38 62 100 9999.0 0.0 16.3 133.5 76.4 61.0 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 79 21 100 10.9 19.7 16.4 129.6 71.1 58.3 2.6 7.9 17.6 30 Becej 27400G00 0 37 63 100 18.1 23.0 15.9 134.6 77.6 61.3 6.4 9.1 20.2 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 79 21 100 12.7 22.2 17.2 123.6 68.5 58.9 4.3 9.1 19.4 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 80 20 100 14.6 20.9 16.2 123.4 68.1 59.8 5.4 10.4 19.6 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 82 18 100 15.9 19.5 16.6 120.6 65.6 56.8 3.2 12.1 19.7 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 80 20 100 8.0 14.2 16.6 129.2 70.7 57.9 3.3 5.8 13.9 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 80 20 100 20.2 25.2 16.6 109.1 63.7 55.9 11.2 15.1 27.9 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 78 22 100 15.2 16.6 15.6 122.8 70.7 59.2 5.7 10.8 14.3 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 80 20 100 14.3 21.9 16.1 114.9 66.7 57.7 6.8 9.8 21.8 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 80 20 100 15.0 20.6 14.2 109.3 64.0 55.8 8.1 11.7 20.7 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 81 19 100 16.9 25.6 14.7 110.0 65.2 55.7 3.6 12.9 26.0 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 83 17 100 14.1 21.8 16.2 116.4 64.4 55.9 5.9 10.4 22.7 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 36 64 100 27.0 28.4 17.6 128.1 73.5 61.1 10.6 15.6 22.0 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 77 23 100 12.6 20.4 16.8 112.4 69.7 56.4 3.2 7.7 19.2 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 83 17 100 12.5 21.0 15.2 112.5 64.6 55.8 4.7 9.5 21.1 30 Nis 06700G01 0 80 20 100 11.2 14.2 15.9 123.1 70.9 55.8 2.7 9.8 13.4 30 Palic 37000G16 0 81 19 100 16.8 23.3 18.7 121.0 68.1 59.8 7.0 12.5 22.6 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 78 22 100 12.0 19.4 16.0 128.8 71.7 58.9 3.8 8.9 17.7 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 82 18 100 21.3 24.5 25.2 114.1 62.0 57.3 7.6 18.2 25.3 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 79 21 100 14.5 20.1 16.0 131.9 74.5 60.5 3.0 9.9 16.5 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 79 21 100 12.7 13.8 15.1 117.1 65.9 54.9 2.7 9.6 13.8 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 38 62 100 18.7 21.0 15.5 127.5 71.4 59.9 4.4 11.3 18.9 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 39 61 100 20.2 24.5 16.9 128.4 73.8 61.6 5.1 11.8 18.1 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 81 19 100 10.6 19.5 18.0 131.4 73.9 61.4 3.1 8.3 15.1 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 81 19 100 15.8 16.0 16.6 120.4 67.5 57.4 10.6 12.6 15.9 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 80 20 100 11.0 20.3 17.4 130.8 74.5 60.9 4.8 7.8 14.9 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 79 21 100 13.0 17.4 16.2 115.1 68.1 57.1 3.1 8.1 17.3 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 79 21 100 25.8 29.8 21.4 118.5 66.4 58.7 10.7 21.0 29.7 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 79 21 100 11.2 20.5 16.4 132.6 72.6 59.8 3.6 8.5 13.7 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------