***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 01.11.2012. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 05.11.2012.-11.11.2012. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 24 76 100 9999.0 0.0 26.9 215.5 87.5 80.5 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 19 81 100 20.3 35.2 23.3 198.0 84.3 79.1 2.8 10.4 15.4 30 Becej 27400G00 0 23 77 100 15.6 27.2 25.4 205.1 86.3 79.2 3.4 7.4 15.2 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 16 84 100 24.6 39.9 26.6 209.4 86.2 79.5 1.8 10.6 15.8 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 16 84 100 17.1 25.8 27.3 208.8 87.3 81.1 2.6 7.9 12.4 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 17 83 100 16.1 22.5 26.7 246.2 88.8 80.6 1.1 7.5 14.7 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 20 80 100 15.1 19.0 24.3 206.1 82.8 79.9 3.1 8.9 15.2 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 18 82 100 27.6 39.7 29.9 214.3 88.5 82.6 3.9 15.4 18.9 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 16 84 100 14.6 19.5 26.4 200.7 87.6 80.2 1.9 7.1 12.6 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 18 82 100 16.9 21.8 28.8 204.8 87.7 81.5 2.0 11.9 14.6 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 18 82 100 16.9 24.0 27.9 224.7 88.8 82.9 0.7 6.9 13.1 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 21 79 100 16.1 38.2 27.7 227.1 89.7 82.7 1.7 6.6 12.1 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 20 80 100 18.1 28.1 27.1 232.5 89.0 81.5 1.5 10.9 14.4 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 26 74 100 24.3 31.1 26.6 186.5 82.3 77.6 4.7 10.1 19.0 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 21 79 100 13.1 24.4 25.1 210.5 86.9 76.9 2.3 6.6 12.1 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 17 83 100 17.2 27.3 27.7 240.5 89.9 82.6 1.5 7.7 12.5 30 Nis 06700G01 0 20 80 100 19.8 28.8 22.2 188.6 81.6 78.0 2.0 6.7 14.0 30 Palic 37000G16 0 17 83 100 19.4 29.7 29.8 192.1 86.7 79.8 2.9 7.4 12.7 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 20 80 100 21.4 27.5 23.4 196.3 84.5 79.0 1.5 9.2 18.8 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 16 84 100 19.0 46.8 36.2 193.6 86.0 80.8 5.9 8.6 16.2 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 19 81 100 13.9 24.4 27.1 212.7 89.0 80.6 3.0 7.0 11.9 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 18 82 100 19.7 25.4 22.8 187.9 82.3 78.5 1.8 10.0 16.6 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 21 79 100 24.1 28.8 23.6 190.4 83.0 78.5 2.1 9.6 16.0 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 22 78 100 22.4 31.6 27.2 194.2 85.2 78.8 2.0 8.9 13.7 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 15 85 100 15.7 38.6 29.3 219.1 89.4 82.1 1.2 4.2 11.4 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 22 78 100 12.1 20.3 25.6 219.5 87.1 78.9 1.7 8.6 12.3 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 19 81 100 14.6 23.0 28.7 221.1 89.8 82.1 2.2 5.7 12.1 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 17 83 100 12.6 28.5 26.3 228.0 88.8 79.9 0.9 4.5 12.8 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 19 81 100 26.8 35.8 31.3 186.6 85.4 78.7 5.4 9.9 24.3 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 20 80 100 17.1 25.8 24.4 204.9 85.2 80.0 2.3 8.7 13.1 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------