***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 01.11.2012. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 05.11.2012.-02.12.2012. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 81 19 100 9999.0 0.0 9.9 0.8 66.1 60.2 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 76 24 100 10.1 10.4 9.5 0.7 64.0 58.7 7.5 9.5 10.6 30 Becej 27400G00 0 77 23 100 11.5 11.6 10.1 0.8 65.4 59.9 8.5 11.1 11.6 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 82 18 100 4.6 5.5 8.3 1.0 68.8 62.1 3.1 4.2 4.8 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 77 23 100 10.9 11.8 8.9 0.8 65.0 59.8 8.8 10.4 11.8 30 Cuprija 39700G22 52 48 0 100 7.9 11.1 8.1 0.8 63.9 58.9 8.9 9.7 11.3 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 75 25 100 10.0 10.3 9.4 0.6 63.3 58.2 7.1 9.5 10.4 30 Kikinda 37800G18 52 48 0 100 1.8 3.7 8.0 0.6 58.5 57.1 2.2 2.8 4.2 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 75 25 100 11.9 11.8 9.5 0.8 63.2 58.9 8.5 11.3 12.0 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 52 48 0 100 8.6 11.2 8.7 0.6 60.6 57.2 8.2 10.4 11.7 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 75 25 100 11.4 12.0 8.9 0.8 63.4 58.9 8.9 10.8 12.1 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 75 25 100 11.1 11.7 8.6 0.7 59.7 58.2 9.1 10.7 11.9 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 75 25 100 11.0 12.0 8.5 0.7 60.3 57.9 9.8 10.4 12.4 30 Leskovac 26200G08 52 48 0 100 9.4 11.6 9.5 0.6 59.8 57.5 8.8 11.2 12.3 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 44 56 100 9.7 10.5 8.7 1.0 72.7 64.8 7.8 8.6 10.1 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 76 24 100 11.6 12.6 8.7 0.8 63.9 59.2 10.1 11.0 12.7 30 Nis 06700G01 51 49 0 100 7.4 9.7 9.1 0.5 62.9 56.8 6.8 9.3 10.1 30 Palic 37000G16 55 45 0 100 7.2 10.0 8.3 0.5 57.2 55.5 7.3 9.2 10.3 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 77 23 100 10.5 11.0 9.8 0.7 64.4 59.4 7.7 10.0 11.0 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 55 45 0 100 5.5 8.0 6.5 0.4 55.0 55.3 6.9 7.9 8.3 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 77 23 100 11.4 11.6 9.9 0.8 64.5 59.3 8.6 10.9 11.7 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 76 24 100 10.3 10.5 9.3 0.5 63.4 57.1 7.2 9.8 10.7 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 77 23 100 10.8 11.0 10.1 0.8 64.5 60.2 7.5 10.3 11.1 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 53 47 0 100 9.8 12.4 9.5 0.6 61.4 57.5 9.8 12.1 12.5 28 Valjevo 28500G11 0 81 19 100 9.9 10.6 8.7 0.8 66.0 60.6 8.1 9.5 10.6 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 51 49 0 100 8.4 11.1 8.2 0.8 61.5 59.4 9.2 10.2 11.2 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 80 20 100 10.8 11.6 9.3 0.8 65.1 60.0 8.9 10.3 11.6 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 81 19 100 9.4 10.7 8.7 1.0 70.8 62.9 8.0 9.0 10.2 29 Zajecar 36700G16 54 46 0 100 5.2 7.3 7.6 0.4 55.3 55.2 5.5 7.3 8.3 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 77 23 100 10.0 10.6 9.8 0.7 64.1 59.4 7.7 9.5 10.6 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------