***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 01.11.2012. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 26.11.2012.-02.12.2012. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 75 25 100 9999.0 0.0 6.1 -0.1 54.2 50.5 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 52 48 0 100 5.2 8.0 5.8 -0.2 52.5 50.7 5.7 7.6 9.8 30 Becej 27400G00 55 45 0 100 6.8 9.9 6.3 -0.1 52.9 50.8 7.1 9.8 10.7 30 Beograd 28900G14 52 48 0 100 0.9 3.2 4.5 -0.1 54.1 50.5 1.2 2.7 3.6 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 57 43 0 100 6.6 9.1 5.1 -0.1 50.8 50.6 6.2 9.1 10.3 30 Cuprija 39700G22 54 46 0 100 5.9 7.8 4.4 0.0 47.5 50.7 6.4 8.0 9.7 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 53 47 0 100 5.5 8.3 5.6 -0.2 54.7 50.4 4.7 7.8 9.4 30 Kikinda 37800G18 55 45 0 100 0.2 1.9 4.6 0.0 47.8 50.6 0.2 2.1 3.0 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 55 45 0 100 7.1 9.9 5.8 -0.1 50.0 50.4 7.1 9.9 11.3 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 54 46 0 100 6.4 8.1 5.2 -0.1 49.0 50.2 7.0 8.5 10.4 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 57 43 0 100 6.3 8.7 5.2 0.0 49.4 51.1 6.4 8.8 11.3 30 Krusevac 38200G21 58 42 0 100 6.7 8.1 5.2 0.0 47.9 51.4 6.9 8.7 10.4 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 55 45 0 100 6.6 8.1 4.9 0.1 47.9 51.9 6.6 8.5 11.3 30 Leskovac 26200G08 53 47 0 100 6.8 9.4 5.9 -0.2 50.1 49.9 7.7 9.4 11.0 30 Loznica 29500G14 51 49 0 100 5.8 7.4 4.7 -0.2 53.9 50.3 6.0 7.4 7.9 30 Negotin 38800G20 54 46 0 100 7.3 9.2 5.0 0.0 49.0 51.2 6.9 9.2 11.7 30 Nis 06700G01 0 75 25 100 7.9 7.6 5.5 -0.3 52.5 49.3 4.5 7.2 8.6 30 Palic 37000G16 53 47 0 100 4.4 6.3 4.8 -0.2 46.8 49.7 5.3 6.4 7.6 30 Pozega 16800G06 52 48 0 100 5.6 8.4 6.1 -0.2 52.4 51.0 6.1 8.0 9.7 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 52 48 0 100 3.8 4.8 3.2 -0.1 45.2 50.0 2.9 5.7 7.2 29 Sjenica 27900G10 52 48 0 100 6.9 9.4 6.1 -0.1 51.8 50.1 7.0 9.4 10.7 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 76 24 100 8.1 7.7 5.8 -0.4 52.1 49.1 5.3 7.4 8.9 30 Sombor 26600G07 53 47 0 100 5.8 8.2 6.4 -0.1 52.4 51.0 6.4 7.8 9.7 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 53 47 0 100 7.7 10.7 5.8 -0.1 49.5 50.3 7.8 10.7 11.4 28 Valjevo 28500G11 51 49 0 100 5.8 8.6 4.9 -0.1 54.3 50.4 6.1 8.4 9.3 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 58 42 0 100 6.4 7.8 4.8 0.1 47.7 51.8 6.3 7.9 9.7 30 Vranje 18300G04 51 49 0 100 6.7 10.0 5.5 -0.1 53.5 50.5 5.9 9.3 10.9 30 Vrsac 39200G15 53 47 0 100 5.9 7.8 4.8 -0.2 52.5 50.3 6.2 7.5 8.6 29 Zajecar 36700G16 54 46 0 100 3.5 5.4 4.2 -0.2 45.2 49.8 3.4 5.8 7.0 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 55 45 0 100 5.3 8.3 6.0 -0.2 53.5 50.8 5.8 7.9 10.0 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------