***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 01.11.2012. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 19.11.2012.-25.11.2012. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 36 64 100 9999.0 0.0 8.6 1.0 61.9 59.3 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 34 66 100 11.1 10.8 8.3 0.9 65.8 58.4 6.5 8.8 10.8 30 Becej 27400G00 0 36 64 100 12.3 11.3 8.7 1.0 64.1 58.8 7.1 10.1 11.7 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 36 64 100 5.9 5.8 6.9 0.9 64.9 58.5 1.2 4.2 5.9 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 51 49 0 100 6.6 11.3 7.4 0.9 64.0 57.8 6.5 9.8 11.4 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 76 24 100 9.4 9.3 6.7 0.8 59.1 57.3 6.3 8.6 11.4 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 36 64 100 10.6 10.5 8.1 0.9 65.7 58.5 6.3 8.6 10.5 30 Kikinda 37800G18 51 49 0 100 -0.3 3.7 6.7 0.9 59.4 57.8 1.0 2.5 4.9 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 75 25 100 11.1 11.6 8.0 0.9 62.6 58.0 8.1 10.2 11.9 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 51 49 0 100 6.6 10.5 7.3 0.9 60.2 57.8 7.3 9.6 10.9 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 76 24 100 11.0 10.2 7.4 0.9 60.0 57.6 7.9 9.9 11.7 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 76 24 100 10.6 10.7 7.3 0.9 58.4 57.7 7.9 9.5 11.3 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 76 24 100 11.1 10.8 7.0 0.8 57.5 57.3 7.4 10.1 11.9 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 31 69 100 13.5 12.8 8.1 1.0 66.2 59.1 8.4 10.6 12.8 30 Loznica 29500G14 51 49 0 100 5.4 9.5 7.2 1.0 65.7 59.4 4.6 7.8 9.5 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 76 24 100 11.4 11.8 7.2 0.9 60.2 57.6 7.9 10.3 12.2 30 Nis 06700G01 0 34 66 100 10.2 10.2 7.9 0.9 65.4 58.2 6.1 8.6 10.2 30 Palic 37000G16 0 75 25 100 8.9 9.3 7.0 0.9 63.3 58.4 5.6 8.1 9.6 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 33 67 100 11.5 11.4 8.5 1.0 66.1 58.6 7.0 8.9 11.4 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 52 48 0 100 3.6 7.4 5.4 0.9 61.8 58.3 3.8 6.7 7.8 30 Sjenica 27900G10 53 47 0 100 6.8 11.4 8.4 1.0 63.6 58.2 6.9 10.1 11.4 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 32 68 100 11.3 10.7 8.1 0.9 64.8 58.4 6.8 9.0 10.9 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 30 70 100 11.6 11.4 8.7 1.0 66.2 58.7 6.9 8.8 11.3 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 52 48 0 100 7.3 12.6 8.1 1.0 64.2 58.9 7.6 10.7 12.8 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 35 65 100 11.3 10.7 7.4 1.0 64.3 59.4 5.7 8.8 10.9 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 76 24 100 9.9 9.9 6.9 0.8 57.4 57.7 6.9 9.0 10.5 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 36 64 100 12.1 11.8 8.0 1.1 63.1 59.6 7.1 9.3 11.9 30 Vrsac 39200G15 51 49 0 100 6.4 9.9 7.2 0.9 64.7 58.3 5.4 8.8 10.1 29 Zajecar 36700G16 0 75 25 100 7.6 7.7 6.4 0.9 63.3 58.3 3.7 6.9 7.9 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 35 65 100 10.9 11.0 8.5 1.0 65.1 58.6 6.5 8.6 11.1 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------