***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 01.11.2012. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 12.11.2012.-18.11.2012. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 77 23 100 9999.0 0.0 11.8 1.3 63.6 60.3 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 78 22 100 10.8 11.1 11.4 1.3 61.8 60.0 6.7 9.9 11.2 30 Becej 27400G00 0 75 25 100 12.3 11.9 11.9 1.2 62.0 59.7 7.8 11.6 12.0 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 78 22 100 6.4 6.8 10.2 1.4 64.0 61.4 4.1 5.5 7.2 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 76 24 100 12.3 12.2 10.6 1.2 61.9 59.0 10.5 11.4 12.4 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 76 24 100 11.9 11.5 10.0 1.1 58.4 58.9 9.9 11.2 12.4 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 79 21 100 10.8 10.7 11.3 1.3 63.0 60.3 6.8 10.1 10.8 30 Kikinda 37800G18 54 46 0 100 1.4 3.8 9.7 0.9 52.5 57.3 2.5 3.7 5.3 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 51 49 0 100 8.9 12.3 11.1 1.1 59.7 58.2 9.8 11.4 13.1 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 55 45 0 100 8.2 11.2 10.3 0.9 54.2 57.3 9.7 11.0 12.2 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 76 24 100 12.4 12.0 10.5 1.1 58.4 58.8 10.7 11.7 12.9 30 Krusevac 38200G21 52 48 0 100 8.6 11.5 10.3 1.0 53.2 57.8 10.7 11.3 13.4 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 56 44 0 100 8.9 12.3 10.1 1.0 53.0 57.5 10.5 12.0 12.8 30 Leskovac 26200G08 54 46 0 100 8.7 11.7 11.2 1.0 53.8 57.1 7.8 11.3 12.7 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 38 62 100 10.2 9.9 10.5 1.6 66.3 64.2 7.8 8.8 9.8 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 76 24 100 12.8 12.8 10.4 1.1 58.6 59.1 11.1 12.1 13.3 30 Nis 06700G01 0 80 20 100 10.3 10.1 11.1 1.2 59.5 59.6 6.6 9.5 10.7 30 Palic 37000G16 61 39 0 100 7.6 10.1 9.9 0.8 50.3 56.2 8.6 10.1 11.7 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 77 23 100 11.1 11.8 11.7 1.3 61.5 59.7 6.7 10.3 11.9 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 59 41 0 100 5.1 8.6 8.0 0.6 48.8 55.4 6.8 8.6 9.7 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 76 24 100 12.1 12.1 11.5 1.1 59.9 59.2 9.6 11.2 12.3 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 78 22 100 10.9 10.6 11.2 1.2 58.4 58.7 6.7 10.2 11.0 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 76 24 100 11.2 11.1 11.9 1.3 60.2 58.9 7.0 10.3 11.7 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 56 44 0 100 9.2 12.0 11.2 1.0 54.9 57.5 8.3 11.8 12.9 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 78 22 100 10.9 11.1 10.5 1.3 64.9 60.9 8.8 10.3 11.2 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 51 49 0 100 9.0 11.2 9.9 0.9 50.9 58.1 9.8 11.2 12.0 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 78 22 100 11.9 12.0 11.2 1.3 64.4 60.6 8.9 11.3 12.2 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 78 22 100 9.7 9.9 10.5 1.4 63.5 61.9 8.7 9.3 10.1 29 Zajecar 36700G16 61 39 0 100 4.6 7.2 9.1 0.7 49.1 55.5 6.5 7.2 9.5 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 77 23 100 10.9 11.2 11.6 1.3 62.7 60.3 6.9 10.1 11.3 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------