***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 01.11.2012. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 05.11.2012.-11.11.2012. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 94 6 100 9999.0 0.0 13.1 1.0 53.9 56.0 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 90 10 100 11.8 11.7 12.6 0.6 52.1 52.9 10.6 11.5 12.7 30 Becej 27400G00 0 94 6 100 12.8 12.8 13.4 1.1 54.5 57.0 11.1 12.6 13.9 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 34 66 100 7.5 7.6 11.4 1.7 69.6 68.7 4.7 6.5 7.2 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 87 13 100 12.8 13.1 12.4 1.4 60.3 61.5 11.1 12.5 13.3 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 92 8 100 12.0 12.5 11.2 1.3 55.0 58.1 9.7 11.8 13.6 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 91 9 100 12.0 11.7 12.4 0.5 49.5 51.1 10.2 11.7 12.4 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 92 8 100 5.7 5.7 11.0 0.8 50.5 52.8 3.3 5.6 6.8 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 91 9 100 13.5 13.6 13.2 1.2 54.5 58.6 11.3 13.2 14.0 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 93 7 100 12.6 12.6 12.0 0.9 51.3 53.7 10.7 12.5 13.4 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 90 10 100 13.0 13.0 12.3 1.1 56.2 58.1 11.0 12.6 14.3 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 92 8 100 12.9 12.8 11.7 1.0 52.6 56.2 10.4 12.6 14.2 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 92 8 100 12.5 12.4 11.9 0.9 51.9 54.7 10.6 12.2 14.0 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 93 7 100 12.9 12.8 12.9 0.7 55.0 53.2 11.3 12.6 14.8 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 28 72 100 12.2 12.4 12.4 1.7 74.4 71.2 10.5 11.5 12.1 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 90 10 100 13.4 13.9 12.1 1.2 57.0 59.1 11.2 13.1 14.8 30 Nis 06700G01 0 86 14 100 11.3 10.7 11.9 0.3 46.8 49.4 10.2 10.9 12.5 30 Palic 37000G16 0 95 5 100 11.3 11.2 11.3 0.4 49.3 49.5 9.5 11.2 13.1 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 91 9 100 12.1 11.8 12.9 0.8 54.5 55.2 11.0 11.8 13.0 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 95 5 100 9.8 9.6 9.4 0.3 48.1 48.2 7.9 9.6 12.0 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 94 6 100 13.0 13.2 13.5 1.2 54.9 57.9 11.0 12.8 13.7 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 86 14 100 11.9 11.5 12.2 0.4 52.3 51.7 10.6 11.4 13.5 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 90 10 100 12.1 12.1 13.3 1.0 55.3 57.3 10.9 11.7 13.6 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 94 6 100 13.2 13.0 12.8 0.7 52.3 52.6 12.0 13.0 14.9 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 92 8 100 12.0 12.1 12.1 1.1 57.1 58.4 10.2 11.9 13.0 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 90 10 100 12.6 13.0 11.2 1.1 53.8 57.8 10.9 12.2 14.0 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 94 6 100 12.7 12.6 12.5 0.8 52.0 53.9 10.6 12.5 13.6 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 33 67 100 12.6 12.7 12.1 1.9 71.5 70.4 10.3 11.8 12.6 29 Zajecar 36700G16 0 94 6 100 8.8 8.5 10.6 0.3 48.4 48.3 6.6 8.6 11.5 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 91 9 100 12.1 12.1 12.9 0.8 52.9 54.2 10.1 11.9 12.7 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------