***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 01.11.2012. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 05.11.2012.-02.12.2012. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 37 63 100 9999.0 0.0 4.2 1.1 69.0 65.2 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 80 20 100 2.2 3.2 3.6 0.9 66.5 63.4 0.5 1.8 3.2 30 Becej 27400G00 0 41 59 100 4.9 5.1 3.9 1.1 68.8 66.0 2.2 3.7 5.0 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 32 68 100 0.0 0.9 2.0 1.3 77.0 69.7 -2.9 -1.8 -0.2 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 34 66 100 2.9 3.5 2.5 1.3 76.0 68.8 0.6 1.4 1.9 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 29 71 100 2.3 2.5 1.0 1.3 75.8 71.0 0.0 0.8 1.6 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 79 21 100 2.1 2.6 3.6 0.9 63.3 63.6 0.6 1.6 3.0 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 31 69 100 -2.1 -1.7 1.5 1.2 73.3 67.6 -3.8 -3.4 -2.3 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 34 66 100 3.6 4.4 3.2 1.3 76.6 68.2 1.2 2.1 2.8 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 33 67 100 3.1 3.4 2.0 1.2 73.9 66.9 0.7 1.4 2.8 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 34 66 100 2.7 3.5 2.3 1.3 77.2 69.1 0.3 1.2 2.1 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 34 66 100 1.9 2.5 2.0 1.3 74.4 69.1 -0.7 0.2 1.5 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 32 68 100 2.2 2.3 1.7 1.3 74.1 69.5 0.3 1.0 1.7 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 40 60 100 3.4 3.3 2.8 1.0 66.8 65.8 1.3 2.3 3.3 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 29 71 100 2.9 3.2 2.5 1.3 74.9 70.8 0.6 1.8 2.8 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 32 68 100 3.6 4.3 2.0 1.4 76.7 70.8 1.0 2.1 3.0 30 Nis 06700G01 0 81 19 100 2.0 2.8 3.4 0.8 64.4 62.5 0.6 1.6 2.8 30 Palic 37000G16 0 36 64 100 0.9 1.1 1.5 1.1 71.8 65.8 -0.7 0.0 0.7 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 81 19 100 2.3 3.1 3.6 0.9 66.5 64.0 0.9 1.9 3.1 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 33 67 100 -0.9 -0.8 0.3 1.2 69.0 66.1 -3.1 -2.0 -1.0 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 37 63 100 3.4 3.8 3.8 1.2 73.2 67.2 0.9 1.8 2.6 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 80 20 100 1.9 2.6 3.4 0.8 65.4 62.5 0.3 1.5 2.7 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 43 57 100 2.8 2.8 3.6 1.0 66.0 65.0 0.9 1.8 2.8 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 35 65 100 9999.0 2.8 2.7 1.1 71.2 66.6 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 27 Valjevo 28500G11 0 37 63 100 3.2 3.7 2.9 1.1 71.3 66.7 0.8 2.0 3.5 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 39 61 100 2.3 2.5 1.7 1.2 72.2 69.2 0.4 1.2 2.2 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 39 61 100 3.7 4.1 3.5 1.1 70.4 65.9 0.6 2.3 3.8 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 28 72 100 1.6 2.3 2.3 1.4 77.6 71.6 -0.5 -0.1 1.7 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 35 65 100 0.9 1.0 0.9 1.1 69.5 65.6 -1.7 -0.1 0.9 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 80 20 100 2.6 3.6 3.8 0.9 66.5 64.1 0.9 2.1 3.5 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------