***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 01.11.2012. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 26.11.2012.-02.12.2012. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 55 45 0 100 9999.0 0.0 0.7 -0.1 55.5 51.4 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 54 46 0 100 -0.4 1.6 0.1 -0.3 53.0 50.5 -0.4 1.3 2.3 30 Becej 27400G00 53 47 0 100 1.4 3.6 0.5 0.0 56.2 52.7 1.0 2.9 4.5 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 33 67 100 -1.1 -1.6 -1.3 0.2 59.7 54.8 -3.8 -2.4 -1.2 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 55 45 0 100 -0.8 1.1 -0.8 0.2 56.6 54.9 -0.2 0.8 1.8 30 Cuprija 39700G22 60 40 0 100 -1.9 0.4 -2.3 0.1 52.9 54.5 -1.0 0.3 1.3 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 54 46 0 100 -0.3 1.5 0.1 -0.4 51.8 49.7 -0.4 1.4 1.8 30 Kikinda 37800G18 57 43 0 100 -6.0 -3.8 -1.8 0.3 55.7 54.8 -5.3 -4.2 -2.3 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 54 46 0 100 -0.1 2.1 -0.2 0.2 56.5 54.6 0.5 1.2 2.5 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 55 45 0 100 -0.4 1.2 -1.3 0.2 55.8 54.7 -0.1 1.0 2.2 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 56 44 0 100 -1.1 1.0 -1.0 0.3 56.9 55.3 -0.6 0.6 1.6 30 Krusevac 38200G21 59 41 0 100 -2.4 0.1 -1.2 0.3 56.7 55.2 -1.4 -0.6 0.7 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 56 44 0 100 -1.3 0.6 -1.6 0.1 55.4 54.3 -0.8 0.5 1.8 30 Leskovac 26200G08 52 48 0 100 0.6 1.9 -0.7 -0.1 53.5 53.4 0.4 1.7 2.5 30 Loznica 29500G14 62 38 0 100 -1.0 1.6 -0.9 0.2 57.6 54.7 -0.4 0.6 2.1 30 Negotin 38800G20 57 43 0 100 -0.2 1.3 -1.4 0.2 55.7 55.0 0.2 1.0 2.4 30 Nis 06700G01 54 46 0 100 -0.7 0.4 0.0 -0.5 50.9 49.1 -0.6 0.4 1.3 30 Palic 37000G16 0 75 25 100 -0.2 -0.5 -1.9 0.1 53.5 54.6 -1.9 -0.7 0.1 30 Pozega 16800G06 55 45 0 100 -0.3 1.3 0.3 -0.2 55.0 51.5 -0.1 0.9 1.9 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 52 48 0 100 -5.0 -3.5 -3.2 0.1 50.4 54.1 -4.4 -3.5 -2.4 29 Sjenica 27900G10 55 45 0 100 -0.4 1.6 0.4 0.1 56.4 53.6 0.1 0.8 2.1 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 55 45 0 100 -0.5 0.7 0.1 -0.4 53.2 50.0 -0.4 0.5 0.9 30 Sombor 26600G07 56 44 0 100 -0.1 1.2 0.3 -0.1 57.2 52.9 0.2 1.1 1.6 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 75 25 100 1.6 1.2 -0.6 0.1 55.8 54.6 -0.1 1.0 1.6 28 Valjevo 28500G11 0 33 67 100 3.0 1.4 -0.6 0.1 57.8 53.8 0.2 0.8 2.8 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 63 37 0 100 -1.4 0.9 -1.5 0.2 55.6 53.7 -0.8 0.5 1.5 30 Vranje 18300G04 55 45 0 100 -0.5 2.6 0.0 -0.1 56.0 52.0 -0.6 1.0 3.3 30 Vrsac 39200G15 60 40 0 100 -1.6 0.4 -1.1 0.2 57.0 54.6 -1.2 0.1 1.2 30 Zajecar 36700G16 52 48 0 100 -3.0 -1.1 -2.5 0.1 51.4 54.2 -3.4 -1.1 -0.1 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 55 45 0 100 -0.1 2.1 0.3 -0.3 54.1 50.9 0.0 1.5 2.6 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------