***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 01.11.2012. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 12.11.2012.-18.11.2012. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 36 64 100 9999.0 0.0 5.8 1.5 67.3 63.6 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 76 24 100 2.5 3.1 5.2 1.3 58.1 62.4 0.5 1.8 3.8 30 Becej 27400G00 0 38 62 100 5.6 5.1 5.4 1.4 63.6 63.4 2.4 4.1 5.3 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 32 68 100 1.3 0.7 3.4 1.6 68.4 66.3 -1.9 -0.5 0.6 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 37 63 100 3.1 3.2 3.9 1.6 64.9 65.1 0.0 1.8 3.3 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 34 66 100 2.8 2.4 2.2 1.4 66.9 64.5 0.7 1.6 2.4 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 77 23 100 2.0 3.1 5.2 1.3 59.7 62.7 0.6 1.2 3.9 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 78 22 100 -2.0 -2.1 2.7 1.2 56.2 62.0 -3.6 -2.3 -1.6 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 36 64 100 4.1 3.6 4.5 1.6 64.9 64.3 1.2 2.2 3.9 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 76 24 100 2.5 2.5 3.4 1.3 58.8 62.5 0.1 2.0 3.2 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 37 63 100 3.0 2.4 3.6 1.5 63.3 64.7 1.0 1.9 2.8 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 38 62 100 2.1 2.1 3.2 1.3 59.6 62.8 0.2 1.4 2.3 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 36 64 100 2.7 2.8 2.8 1.3 61.5 62.4 0.1 1.7 3.0 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 79 21 100 3.0 3.1 4.0 1.1 58.3 59.7 1.6 2.4 3.8 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 34 66 100 2.7 2.5 3.8 1.6 70.5 67.8 1.2 2.2 2.4 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 34 66 100 3.8 3.6 3.1 1.5 65.8 64.6 1.5 2.5 3.6 30 Nis 06700G01 0 76 24 100 2.6 2.8 4.9 1.2 58.4 61.3 0.4 2.0 3.4 30 Palic 37000G16 0 75 25 100 1.2 1.0 2.8 1.1 56.9 60.4 -0.6 0.9 1.7 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 77 23 100 2.3 2.3 5.1 1.2 58.6 62.0 0.7 1.6 3.6 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 77 23 100 -1.4 -1.8 1.5 0.9 53.8 58.7 -2.5 -1.9 -0.6 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 35 65 100 3.9 3.8 5.2 1.6 68.3 64.4 0.5 1.9 3.6 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 78 22 100 2.1 2.3 4.8 1.0 57.2 59.3 0.3 1.6 3.3 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 79 21 100 2.3 2.4 4.9 1.2 59.7 61.5 0.8 1.8 2.6 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 77 23 100 2.3 2.1 4.0 1.3 59.9 61.5 0.7 1.8 2.6 29 Valjevo 28500G11 0 33 67 100 3.8 3.5 4.3 1.5 64.9 64.4 1.2 2.2 3.6 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 36 64 100 2.7 2.4 2.8 1.1 61.2 61.2 0.9 1.9 2.5 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 36 64 100 4.5 4.2 5.1 1.5 65.0 63.6 0.6 2.2 4.3 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 32 68 100 2.2 2.0 3.6 1.6 70.0 67.2 -0.3 1.0 1.9 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 77 23 100 0.4 0.6 2.2 1.0 56.1 59.1 -0.9 -0.1 1.0 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 76 24 100 2.7 3.4 5.3 1.3 59.8 62.9 0.9 2.0 4.1 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------