***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 31.10.2019. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 04.11.2019.-01.12.2019. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 77 23 100 53.6 53.2 45.8 100.5 53.9 48.0 33.1 51.1 56.0 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 79 21 100 49.7 59.0 46.4 110.4 63.1 53.8 28.1 45.8 59.3 30 Becej 27400G00 53 47 0 100 37.0 54.8 43.0 95.6 52.4 46.1 37.7 52.5 65.2 30 Beograd 28900G14 53 47 0 100 46.5 58.8 49.4 91.3 49.4 43.9 47.1 59.3 71.7 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 53 47 0 100 37.1 45.6 43.4 85.8 45.9 40.9 30.7 48.6 66.9 30 Cuprija 39700G22 59 41 0 100 32.9 41.5 39.6 80.4 42.1 39.2 35.1 45.2 60.6 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 79 21 100 44.6 49.8 46.3 111.1 62.9 53.8 26.7 38.4 54.0 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 75 25 100 87.3 71.9 48.2 87.9 47.5 43.3 52.1 74.8 105.9 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 75 25 100 54.3 47.6 43.5 85.8 45.7 41.3 32.7 49.1 65.0 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 51 49 0 100 39.0 50.9 46.2 86.1 46.4 41.7 42.4 52.8 63.5 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 55 45 0 100 35.0 44.1 41.6 82.7 44.1 39.7 32.0 49.3 69.3 30 Krusevac 38200G21 51 49 0 100 39.6 56.6 42.9 85.4 44.9 41.9 41.7 57.8 81.0 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 58 42 0 100 38.4 49.1 41.3 79.4 38.9 38.8 45.6 56.2 71.6 30 Leskovac 26200G08 52 48 0 100 50.6 68.7 51.7 94.6 53.3 46.6 46.6 67.3 82.2 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 75 25 100 70.2 67.9 52.4 95.9 55.6 46.5 47.1 60.5 75.1 30 Negotin 38800G20 60 40 0 100 32.4 45.5 40.7 80.9 40.3 38.8 42.5 49.2 65.7 30 Nis 06700G01 0 83 17 100 45.8 49.0 48.6 117.4 66.3 58.9 25.9 39.3 48.7 30 Palic 37000G16 53 47 0 100 47.7 65.8 50.0 91.1 47.9 44.4 49.1 66.8 79.1 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 78 22 100 55.4 58.5 45.4 106.1 60.6 51.7 30.2 50.3 63.7 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 79 21 100 79.3 75.0 64.6 96.4 52.1 48.3 51.9 73.7 83.9 29 Sjenica 27900G10 53 47 0 100 34.2 46.3 42.8 89.2 47.2 42.5 35.7 49.1 63.5 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 82 18 100 50.8 63.2 49.7 114.1 65.5 57.6 33.1 45.5 63.3 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 76 24 100 53.1 53.8 44.5 99.8 55.9 49.3 34.1 48.5 60.4 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 59 41 0 100 38.4 61.1 46.5 90.9 49.1 44.2 44.3 61.2 73.6 28 Valjevo 28500G11 0 75 25 100 50.8 45.9 49.4 97.2 51.4 46.6 35.3 45.7 52.0 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 78 22 100 56.4 47.9 47.3 90.2 46.6 45.0 35.9 50.6 70.7 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 76 24 100 50.4 47.4 48.2 101.2 55.1 48.7 36.8 45.8 54.9 30 Vrsac 39200G15 55 45 0 100 36.4 51.6 45.4 87.3 48.3 42.2 31.8 52.3 69.7 30 Zajecar 36700G16 52 48 0 100 71.7 101.9 55.2 94.9 50.7 46.8 74.7 101.7 112.1 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 78 22 100 46.9 53.5 45.2 105.3 60.0 50.9 26.2 41.5 54.3 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------