***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 31.10.2019. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 25.11.2019.-01.12.2019. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 79 21 100 7.5 9.2 13.2 115.6 63.1 56.8 1.8 5.8 9.6 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 80 20 100 6.1 6.8 12.1 114.3 62.9 57.5 2.1 3.4 10.4 30 Becej 27400G00 0 81 19 100 9.6 10.4 13.0 111.7 61.7 54.9 3.2 6.8 11.7 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 84 16 100 13.7 15.0 15.6 121.0 65.9 56.5 5.2 11.4 15.2 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 80 20 100 10.5 14.9 14.6 113.2 62.6 54.9 2.4 8.0 18.0 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 83 17 100 8.5 10.1 13.1 103.7 62.2 53.5 3.3 6.8 11.2 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 80 20 100 7.9 9.9 11.8 113.3 63.1 57.1 3.7 5.9 10.2 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 81 19 100 12.2 12.8 15.7 113.7 62.6 54.9 7.2 9.3 14.0 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 80 20 100 6.9 8.6 14.9 110.0 62.0 54.4 2.1 4.1 15.7 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 80 20 100 10.8 11.7 15.8 112.7 62.1 54.7 3.6 7.8 15.5 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 81 19 100 10.2 11.7 14.5 114.0 63.3 54.8 3.6 8.4 13.8 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 83 17 100 13.4 14.9 14.2 112.5 62.5 55.0 7.1 10.9 15.4 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 83 17 100 9.7 11.0 14.2 106.8 61.7 53.9 5.8 7.9 12.9 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 83 17 100 13.4 13.3 16.3 112.8 61.5 54.4 3.5 11.4 17.7 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 80 20 100 15.5 23.1 16.8 131.7 70.4 58.6 4.6 10.4 18.3 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 81 19 100 11.9 11.9 14.0 109.4 62.4 54.6 4.5 10.1 13.7 30 Nis 06700G01 0 82 18 100 6.1 9.5 12.1 115.8 64.5 58.0 3.0 4.7 10.2 30 Palic 37000G16 0 80 20 100 12.8 13.8 16.3 112.1 61.1 55.0 6.4 10.0 17.7 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 81 19 100 8.1 8.8 12.3 113.2 61.8 56.7 1.2 5.1 10.5 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 80 20 100 17.2 17.0 19.5 112.1 61.8 55.5 6.7 14.8 21.9 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 83 17 100 9.1 11.0 13.8 109.0 60.6 54.2 2.3 7.7 11.9 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 80 20 100 8.4 11.5 12.7 117.1 65.0 58.2 2.7 5.8 11.7 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 85 15 100 9.0 8.0 12.8 110.7 60.8 55.2 2.5 7.2 13.3 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 82 18 100 13.3 11.7 15.2 112.5 61.0 54.2 4.2 9.6 12.3 28 Valjevo 28500G11 0 84 16 100 8.9 11.7 14.7 115.3 64.5 56.5 3.3 6.6 12.4 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 83 17 100 8.4 9.0 14.8 111.0 62.6 55.6 4.4 7.0 10.5 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 81 19 100 8.6 9.9 13.7 114.9 64.5 56.7 2.7 6.3 10.2 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 82 18 100 11.9 16.5 14.9 120.7 67.3 56.3 5.2 10.0 15.3 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 82 18 100 17.9 21.6 17.1 112.9 60.7 55.3 8.3 13.0 26.3 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 81 19 100 6.5 5.6 12.3 114.5 62.8 57.1 2.8 3.9 7.9 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------