***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 31.10.2019. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 18.11.2019.-24.11.2019. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 77 23 100 9.5 7.8 9.8 78.7 50.6 45.0 3.9 7.6 12.4 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 76 24 100 8.6 9.6 10.9 99.4 61.2 50.5 1.5 5.9 11.3 30 Becej 27400G00 0 78 22 100 9.7 8.1 9.7 80.2 52.2 46.2 2.6 7.8 10.7 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 81 19 100 15.4 12.4 11.8 75.9 49.7 45.3 6.5 12.5 18.2 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 78 22 100 14.3 10.1 10.0 68.1 47.2 42.9 4.5 12.0 17.7 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 80 20 100 16.7 13.8 10.6 75.5 50.3 45.2 8.5 13.8 18.4 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 77 23 100 8.3 8.6 10.7 98.1 59.9 50.2 2.4 5.9 10.1 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 79 21 100 26.7 20.8 10.1 66.7 47.2 42.2 4.9 23.0 30.0 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 52 48 0 100 4.8 9.6 9.9 66.8 46.3 42.0 1.3 9.9 18.2 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 77 23 100 13.9 7.7 10.2 67.0 45.9 42.4 2.9 10.3 17.7 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 79 21 100 13.8 9.7 9.6 68.0 47.2 42.7 3.5 10.5 19.9 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 79 21 100 11.4 7.8 9.7 69.4 49.0 43.3 3.8 8.3 14.3 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 79 21 100 20.9 18.7 11.0 78.1 53.3 46.1 4.5 17.3 21.7 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 79 21 100 18.3 17.3 11.7 80.0 52.2 47.2 4.1 15.0 23.8 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 82 18 100 11.3 11.3 13.8 85.6 58.5 50.2 3.8 6.8 13.2 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 80 20 100 14.6 12.3 10.4 73.7 49.6 44.4 5.7 12.5 19.6 30 Nis 06700G01 0 75 25 100 10.9 10.3 11.0 106.2 63.7 51.5 1.9 8.6 10.7 30 Palic 37000G16 0 80 20 100 13.2 10.1 10.9 71.4 47.2 44.6 4.9 10.3 20.0 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 76 24 100 10.9 10.6 10.6 95.3 59.8 49.9 2.8 8.8 12.6 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 81 19 100 14.7 10.1 13.4 72.4 49.4 44.8 6.0 10.4 19.1 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 77 23 100 12.1 9.7 9.7 71.6 49.1 43.2 2.7 10.1 13.6 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 52 48 0 100 5.1 12.7 11.5 104.5 63.0 50.9 3.4 9.5 13.3 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 77 23 100 9.8 8.9 10.3 87.3 56.4 48.9 2.4 7.3 11.3 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 79 21 100 14.6 9.3 10.6 75.9 49.4 45.9 2.4 10.3 17.6 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 78 22 100 9.3 8.2 11.0 77.9 50.5 45.1 2.4 7.8 12.0 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 80 20 100 17.1 14.3 11.3 78.2 52.7 44.7 6.2 13.9 24.2 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 77 23 100 8.6 6.9 10.5 80.5 52.2 45.8 2.0 5.6 10.9 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 83 17 100 10.8 10.4 11.7 77.4 52.6 46.8 3.4 8.9 15.7 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 80 20 100 20.4 14.8 11.5 72.4 49.2 45.4 7.4 16.0 33.2 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 77 23 100 8.5 9.1 10.5 91.7 57.6 48.8 2.1 5.8 11.7 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------