***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 31.10.2019. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 11.11.2019.-17.11.2019. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 76 24 100 10.7 10.2 11.2 93.8 59.9 46.5 5.5 8.2 11.5 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 77 23 100 12.5 11.0 10.4 92.0 58.3 48.7 3.4 9.7 16.8 30 Becej 27400G00 0 77 23 100 13.3 16.0 11.3 96.1 60.4 48.6 5.7 10.8 17.3 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 76 24 100 13.7 18.1 14.1 106.1 65.8 51.3 5.1 9.8 18.2 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 51 49 0 100 6.8 16.7 11.0 91.4 59.9 46.4 5.5 11.6 20.3 30 Cuprija 39700G22 52 48 0 100 6.6 16.6 10.9 87.8 59.4 45.3 4.3 12.8 19.7 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 81 19 100 11.0 11.8 10.2 90.6 59.2 48.1 4.2 9.7 13.4 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 75 25 100 21.4 21.8 11.6 86.3 56.0 46.8 10.2 18.4 23.0 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 51 49 0 100 6.3 13.5 10.7 88.4 58.5 45.7 3.7 11.6 14.9 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 75 25 100 15.9 13.9 11.4 88.6 57.3 46.9 6.1 11.9 20.8 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 75 25 100 14.6 13.6 10.8 87.4 56.3 46.2 6.3 11.1 18.6 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 76 24 100 16.8 17.2 11.1 87.2 57.2 47.5 3.4 11.2 26.8 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 76 24 100 14.0 11.6 11.1 85.4 56.2 47.4 7.2 10.1 20.2 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 76 24 100 18.8 18.3 12.4 87.0 55.9 46.8 6.6 15.6 22.5 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 77 23 100 11.8 21.9 15.6 113.5 70.7 53.1 3.5 7.3 20.2 30 Negotin 38800G20 51 49 0 100 5.2 15.8 10.6 84.7 56.8 45.5 5.6 9.4 19.7 30 Nis 06700G01 0 78 22 100 11.2 13.7 11.2 102.1 61.5 51.3 4.8 9.5 14.1 30 Palic 37000G16 0 76 24 100 14.9 12.1 11.2 83.5 55.1 44.3 6.3 10.1 22.5 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 76 24 100 15.0 15.9 10.5 90.8 58.4 48.2 3.8 11.9 18.4 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 79 21 100 19.8 21.6 16.0 92.6 56.3 50.4 7.7 16.4 25.3 30 Sjenica 27900G10 52 48 0 100 5.8 15.4 10.9 93.8 60.0 47.2 4.2 10.0 16.5 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 75 25 100 13.3 13.6 11.1 96.3 59.3 50.5 2.5 9.6 14.7 30 Sombor 26600G07 54 46 0 100 5.0 15.2 10.6 88.9 58.0 47.3 5.2 9.9 19.0 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 76 24 100 15.2 14.6 11.3 87.5 56.3 45.5 5.1 12.3 18.1 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 77 23 100 10.9 12.4 12.4 96.3 59.9 47.2 3.1 7.8 15.1 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 55 45 0 100 6.3 16.0 12.1 86.0 56.5 46.6 10.5 13.8 20.0 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 76 24 100 11.1 9.8 11.7 93.2 58.9 46.5 4.5 8.3 12.0 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 76 24 100 10.7 19.3 13.1 100.2 65.1 49.7 3.6 7.4 19.5 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 77 23 100 22.7 20.1 12.5 86.0 55.1 46.5 12.1 16.5 29.2 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 79 21 100 13.1 12.8 10.6 90.9 58.4 48.3 4.4 11.0 15.2 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------