***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 31.10.2019. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 04.11.2019.-10.11.2019. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 86 14 100 11.1 13.5 11.6 118.9 68.3 61.4 5.3 9.9 12.7 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 46 54 100 15.6 22.3 13.0 141.7 75.5 65.4 3.5 6.9 15.3 30 Becej 27400G00 0 80 20 100 11.7 14.7 8.9 94.8 64.3 54.6 3.8 9.9 15.1 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 85 15 100 9.4 6.0 8.0 64.2 50.6 46.7 1.6 5.8 17.6 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 81 19 100 10.7 8.5 7.6 70.8 54.9 49.8 2.2 8.1 12.2 30 Cuprija 39700G22 55 45 0 100 3.1 3.9 5.0 49.4 44.2 40.4 1.3 6.9 13.5 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 85 15 100 10.0 16.5 13.6 149.2 75.7 66.4 2.3 8.6 15.2 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 81 19 100 14.3 20.8 10.8 87.1 58.8 54.4 5.8 10.2 25.6 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 80 20 100 9.0 10.5 8.1 78.6 57.8 51.2 1.3 6.9 16.0 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 79 21 100 13.2 13.4 8.8 76.9 55.4 49.9 2.0 11.0 17.9 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 78 22 100 11.3 8.8 6.7 60.1 49.9 45.8 1.4 8.9 14.5 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 83 17 100 10.9 10.4 8.0 72.8 55.2 51.3 3.4 8.3 16.1 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 56 44 0 100 4.8 3.9 4.9 42.8 39.4 37.8 3.0 10.9 17.2 30 Leskovac 26200G08 51 49 0 100 7.2 16.3 11.2 99.8 65.0 53.3 4.9 12.4 17.1 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 88 12 100 5.5 4.7 6.2 50.9 51.6 46.6 1.0 4.1 10.3 30 Negotin 38800G20 53 47 0 100 3.8 6.5 5.7 52.5 46.3 41.8 2.1 8.0 13.7 30 Nis 06700G01 0 43 57 100 15.8 20.6 14.3 148.7 76.7 68.0 2.7 7.7 16.0 30 Palic 37000G16 0 76 24 100 14.5 18.6 11.6 99.4 62.8 53.6 4.0 11.3 18.9 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 82 18 100 11.1 20.8 12.0 130.0 73.4 62.6 2.5 8.5 16.8 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 84 16 100 12.0 17.0 15.7 112.6 66.6 61.3 6.5 9.3 17.0 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 82 18 100 9.5 10.9 8.5 83.0 61.0 52.3 2.1 7.8 12.0 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 46 54 100 15.4 20.7 14.4 141.8 74.9 66.6 2.5 8.5 17.5 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 77 23 100 12.6 19.1 10.9 115.7 71.8 59.6 2.2 8.9 14.0 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 55 45 0 100 4.9 14.2 9.3 87.5 61.0 50.0 4.1 9.6 16.7 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 87 13 100 7.3 10.2 11.3 102.6 63.1 59.3 1.5 5.8 11.5 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 86 14 100 7.2 8.8 9.2 86.1 61.4 55.7 2.2 5.5 11.2 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 87 13 100 10.2 13.7 12.3 121.8 68.4 62.7 4.6 8.9 13.6 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 80 20 100 6.4 2.2 5.7 49.0 46.3 41.2 0.9 3.0 9.0 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 80 20 100 22.1 25.7 13.9 112.8 66.2 57.0 6.9 19.3 25.7 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 84 16 100 9.5 17.0 11.8 130.3 73.0 63.2 1.9 7.9 15.7 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------