***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 31.10.2019. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 04.11.2019.-01.12.2019. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 14 86 100 12.5 14.1 13.0 3.0 89.8 81.9 8.5 10.2 11.2 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 16 84 100 11.7 13.1 12.8 2.8 89.1 79.3 7.7 9.8 10.7 30 Becej 27400G00 0 18 82 100 12.5 14.4 13.2 2.8 88.0 79.1 8.6 11.3 11.7 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 20 80 100 6.1 7.7 10.0 2.8 87.4 80.8 3.2 4.5 5.3 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 19 81 100 12.4 13.8 11.4 2.8 86.6 79.2 9.0 10.6 12.1 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 17 83 100 11.7 12.6 10.8 3.0 86.3 80.5 9.1 9.8 11.4 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 16 84 100 11.5 12.9 12.7 2.8 89.5 79.4 7.3 9.6 10.5 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 20 80 100 5.0 5.6 10.6 2.5 82.8 76.0 2.3 3.2 4.3 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 20 80 100 13.2 14.8 12.2 2.7 86.3 78.4 8.7 11.4 12.3 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 20 80 100 12.2 13.5 11.5 2.7 84.1 77.4 8.5 10.5 11.9 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 18 82 100 12.8 14.2 11.8 2.8 86.0 78.6 9.1 10.9 12.3 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 20 80 100 12.2 13.4 11.2 2.6 84.6 77.6 9.4 10.7 12.1 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 16 84 100 12.5 13.7 11.5 2.8 86.8 79.3 10.0 10.7 12.5 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 20 80 100 13.4 14.7 12.5 2.5 83.8 74.7 9.2 11.3 12.5 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 21 79 100 10.4 11.6 10.8 2.4 85.7 78.6 8.0 8.9 10.4 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 18 82 100 13.2 14.2 11.5 2.9 86.4 79.5 10.3 11.3 12.9 30 Nis 06700G01 0 16 84 100 11.2 12.4 12.3 2.6 88.4 78.2 7.2 9.5 10.1 30 Palic 37000G16 0 22 78 100 10.9 12.0 11.3 2.6 82.7 75.8 7.5 9.3 10.6 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 16 84 100 12.0 13.8 13.0 2.8 88.1 78.5 7.8 10.2 11.0 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 26 74 100 9.5 10.2 9.4 2.2 79.4 74.2 6.6 7.9 8.5 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 20 80 100 12.7 14.2 12.7 2.7 87.1 78.6 8.7 10.9 11.9 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 20 80 100 11.6 13.0 12.3 2.4 87.3 76.6 7.7 9.9 10.9 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 18 82 100 12.1 13.5 13.1 2.6 86.0 76.5 8.0 10.5 11.1 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 20 80 100 13.4 14.7 12.5 2.7 84.7 76.4 9.4 12.0 12.6 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 18 82 100 11.2 13.2 11.6 2.9 88.5 81.0 8.2 9.8 10.9 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 19 81 100 12.0 12.5 10.4 2.4 85.3 78.5 9.2 10.5 11.2 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 16 84 100 12.4 14.2 12.5 3.0 89.6 81.5 9.0 10.7 11.7 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 21 79 100 10.9 11.5 10.5 2.7 86.4 79.6 8.3 9.4 10.4 29 Zajecar 36700G16 0 24 76 100 9.0 9.9 10.6 2.4 80.4 74.3 5.7 7.5 8.4 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 16 84 100 11.6 13.2 12.9 2.9 89.7 79.8 7.8 9.8 10.7 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------