***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 31.10.2019. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 25.11.2019.-01.12.2019. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 30 70 100 10.7 9.6 8.8 1.7 65.0 62.3 6.2 8.4 10.0 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 33 67 100 10.1 8.7 8.6 1.4 63.1 60.4 6.5 7.7 9.7 30 Becej 27400G00 0 34 66 100 11.3 10.8 9.2 1.6 63.2 61.3 7.0 9.4 11.1 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 36 64 100 4.6 4.2 6.4 1.8 66.4 64.3 1.3 3.3 4.1 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 35 65 100 11.1 10.6 7.4 1.7 64.6 62.6 7.3 9.4 10.8 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 33 67 100 9.9 10.1 7.1 2.0 66.2 62.7 6.8 8.2 10.1 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 33 67 100 9.9 8.7 8.6 1.4 62.1 60.5 5.6 7.7 9.7 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 34 66 100 3.6 2.9 7.1 1.7 64.4 61.7 0.7 2.2 3.0 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 35 65 100 11.8 11.2 8.1 1.7 62.9 61.5 7.3 10.3 11.5 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 34 66 100 10.6 10.4 7.6 1.7 63.6 61.2 6.5 9.1 10.6 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 33 67 100 11.7 11.6 7.7 1.8 64.6 62.8 7.6 9.5 11.8 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 34 66 100 11.1 11.1 7.5 1.8 65.4 63.2 7.5 9.3 11.1 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 30 70 100 11.7 12.1 7.2 2.0 66.9 63.4 7.1 9.1 12.1 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 75 25 100 10.1 9.9 8.3 1.2 59.1 57.9 7.5 9.4 10.6 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 35 65 100 8.5 8.9 6.9 1.7 67.0 64.5 5.9 7.1 8.9 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 33 67 100 11.9 11.9 7.4 2.0 66.2 63.4 8.0 9.7 11.9 30 Nis 06700G01 53 47 0 100 5.2 7.9 8.3 1.2 61.1 58.7 5.6 7.6 8.1 30 Palic 37000G16 0 38 62 100 8.1 7.9 7.7 1.6 61.6 60.0 4.9 7.1 8.3 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 34 66 100 10.3 9.1 8.9 1.4 62.5 60.2 6.6 8.0 9.7 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 77 23 100 5.8 7.4 5.9 1.4 60.4 60.0 3.7 5.0 7.7 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 34 66 100 11.4 10.7 8.6 1.6 63.3 61.4 7.1 9.5 10.9 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 75 25 100 8.6 8.4 8.2 1.0 58.7 57.5 6.1 7.9 9.1 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 37 63 100 10.0 8.9 9.1 1.3 60.5 59.4 6.3 8.4 9.5 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 36 64 100 11.5 11.2 8.4 1.5 60.2 59.8 7.4 9.8 11.5 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 32 68 100 9.9 9.8 7.4 1.7 64.7 63.0 7.1 8.6 10.1 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 29 71 100 10.7 10.7 7.0 1.9 67.1 64.7 6.9 7.5 10.6 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 30 70 100 11.4 11.4 8.3 1.6 64.4 62.3 6.8 9.3 12.0 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 35 65 100 9.1 9.3 6.7 1.8 66.6 64.0 6.1 8.2 9.2 29 Zajecar 36700G16 0 75 25 100 6.6 7.1 7.1 1.5 60.2 59.6 3.0 5.9 7.7 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 33 67 100 10.0 9.4 8.7 1.5 64.0 61.2 6.2 7.9 10.2 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------