***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 31.10.2019. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 18.11.2019.-24.11.2019. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 53 47 0 100 5.7 10.0 10.2 1.4 64.3 60.1 6.3 8.2 10.7 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 53 47 0 100 5.8 10.0 10.2 1.4 64.8 59.6 6.8 8.6 10.2 30 Becej 27400G00 53 47 0 100 6.8 10.7 10.5 1.3 62.3 58.7 7.2 10.1 11.6 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 77 23 100 4.2 4.8 7.3 0.9 57.6 56.5 1.2 3.3 5.9 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 76 24 100 10.5 9.8 8.5 1.0 57.6 56.8 7.6 9.3 10.5 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 75 25 100 9.5 9.9 8.1 1.1 60.7 58.8 6.8 8.2 10.9 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 53 47 0 100 5.5 10.2 10.2 1.4 65.2 59.8 6.2 8.4 10.3 30 Kikinda 37800G18 54 46 0 100 0.6 3.6 8.3 1.0 57.1 57.4 0.6 3.0 4.4 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 52 48 0 100 7.0 10.9 9.3 1.1 58.3 57.3 7.9 10.3 11.3 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 54 46 0 100 6.4 9.7 8.9 1.1 58.3 57.6 7.6 9.4 10.4 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 51 49 0 100 6.5 9.9 8.9 1.2 59.0 58.0 8.4 9.8 10.7 30 Krusevac 38200G21 52 48 0 100 6.8 10.6 8.7 1.1 59.8 58.0 7.8 9.5 11.5 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 53 47 0 100 6.1 11.0 8.5 1.3 62.4 59.9 7.4 9.2 12.6 30 Leskovac 26200G08 52 48 0 100 7.2 11.7 9.8 1.1 57.0 56.7 7.1 11.1 12.7 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 79 21 100 8.5 8.6 7.7 0.7 56.6 55.3 5.5 7.6 10.3 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 75 25 100 11.4 11.7 8.6 1.3 62.5 59.1 8.5 10.0 11.9 30 Nis 06700G01 55 45 0 100 5.3 9.6 10.0 1.3 63.9 58.8 6.4 8.2 9.7 30 Palic 37000G16 53 47 0 100 5.2 9.4 9.1 1.2 58.1 57.9 5.1 7.7 10.0 30 Pozega 16800G06 51 49 0 100 6.0 10.8 10.4 1.4 63.8 59.1 6.7 8.9 10.9 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 75 25 100 7.2 6.8 7.3 1.0 56.4 58.2 3.1 6.1 8.3 30 Sjenica 27900G10 51 49 0 100 6.7 10.6 9.8 1.1 60.0 57.3 7.7 9.6 11.4 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 55 45 0 100 5.8 10.6 9.9 1.2 62.4 58.1 6.3 8.9 10.6 30 Sombor 26600G07 53 47 0 100 5.9 10.6 10.6 1.2 62.2 58.0 6.3 8.8 11.1 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 55 45 0 100 7.7 12.0 9.9 1.2 59.2 57.7 7.6 10.7 12.4 30 Valjevo 28500G11 51 49 0 100 6.2 9.6 8.6 1.1 62.5 58.5 6.8 8.2 10.6 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 76 24 100 10.0 9.6 8.2 1.1 59.1 59.6 6.7 8.9 11.1 30 Vranje 18300G04 54 46 0 100 6.4 10.8 9.8 1.4 65.0 60.3 7.7 8.9 10.9 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 78 22 100 9.4 9.6 7.6 0.9 57.4 56.1 5.6 9.0 10.2 29 Zajecar 36700G16 52 48 0 100 3.3 7.2 8.5 1.1 57.0 58.0 3.6 5.8 8.1 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 51 49 0 100 5.8 10.3 10.3 1.4 64.9 60.0 6.7 8.5 10.5 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------