***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 31.10.2019. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 04.11.2019.-10.11.2019. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 0 100 100 15.8 19.9 19.4 6.4 99.5 98.0 11.2 13.0 13.7 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 0 100 100 14.0 18.8 19.0 5.8 97.2 95.2 11.2 11.9 13.1 30 Becej 27400G00 0 1 99 100 15.3 20.2 19.6 6.0 98.5 96.2 11.1 13.0 14.1 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 0 100 100 9.2 16.0 16.4 6.7 98.9 98.3 4.7 5.9 7.8 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 0 100 100 15.8 21.4 18.1 6.2 98.7 97.9 10.8 12.7 13.9 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 0 100 100 15.4 21.3 16.7 6.0 98.8 97.0 10.3 12.4 13.7 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 1 99 100 14.8 18.5 18.7 5.6 96.1 94.7 10.6 11.8 13.1 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 0 100 100 7.8 10.1 15.7 4.7 90.8 89.6 3.8 5.6 7.1 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 0 100 100 16.7 21.5 18.7 5.9 98.9 97.5 11.7 13.0 14.6 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 1 99 100 15.1 19.0 17.3 5.5 96.0 94.1 11.4 12.4 13.9 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 0 100 100 16.8 21.9 18.4 5.8 97.7 96.1 11.2 12.8 14.1 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 0 100 100 15.8 18.5 16.5 4.9 92.6 91.8 11.0 12.2 14.4 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 0 100 100 16.3 21.2 17.9 5.3 96.1 93.8 10.6 12.4 14.5 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 1 99 100 16.3 20.5 18.5 5.2 95.6 92.5 11.2 13.1 14.8 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 0 100 100 13.2 19.3 17.3 5.5 97.2 96.4 10.9 11.7 12.5 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 0 100 100 16.9 21.8 17.8 5.8 97.8 96.2 11.2 13.6 14.9 30 Nis 06700G01 0 1 99 100 13.6 17.5 18.1 5.3 95.4 93.7 10.3 11.6 12.6 30 Palic 37000G16 0 3 97 100 15.2 17.3 16.5 5.0 93.1 90.4 10.1 10.8 13.0 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 0 100 100 14.8 19.0 19.2 5.7 96.9 94.7 11.1 12.3 13.5 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 6 94 100 13.3 14.2 13.9 3.8 82.3 81.9 8.1 10.2 11.4 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 0 100 100 16.2 20.8 19.2 5.8 98.7 97.1 11.2 12.9 14.6 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 0 100 100 14.3 18.4 18.0 5.0 95.7 93.1 10.5 12.3 13.4 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 0 100 100 15.0 19.2 19.0 5.3 95.9 93.4 10.8 12.6 14.1 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 1 99 100 16.3 20.9 18.7 5.5 97.2 93.9 12.0 13.6 15.0 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 0 100 100 14.8 20.5 18.4 6.3 99.1 98.2 10.1 12.4 13.3 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 0 100 100 15.3 17.9 15.1 4.1 88.6 88.6 10.4 12.5 14.4 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 0 100 100 15.8 20.1 18.8 6.2 99.0 97.5 10.8 12.7 14.3 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 0 100 100 13.8 17.5 17.1 6.4 98.3 97.4 10.5 12.1 13.0 29 Zajecar 36700G16 0 5 95 100 13.1 14.3 15.5 4.4 87.7 85.8 7.1 9.0 11.4 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 0 100 100 14.3 18.9 19.2 5.9 97.9 95.8 10.9 12.2 13.3 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------