***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 31.10.2019. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 04.11.2019.-01.12.2019. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 9 91 100 4.4 5.5 6.7 3.0 89.6 83.7 1.3 2.7 3.7 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 13 87 100 3.7 5.2 6.2 2.8 90.5 82.6 0.9 1.9 3.2 30 Becej 27400G00 0 10 90 100 5.4 7.6 6.6 2.9 92.2 84.7 2.4 3.7 5.2 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 10 90 100 0.8 1.6 3.5 2.4 87.3 81.3 -2.7 -1.7 -0.3 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 12 88 100 3.3 4.1 4.7 2.8 90.7 83.9 0.9 1.5 2.3 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 14 86 100 2.5 3.5 2.3 2.4 90.5 81.8 -0.1 1.0 1.7 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 11 89 100 3.6 5.2 6.3 2.9 90.5 82.7 0.7 1.9 3.1 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 18 82 100 -1.7 -0.5 2.7 2.6 90.1 82.4 -3.8 -3.2 -2.1 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 13 87 100 4.2 5.1 4.7 2.6 90.3 83.1 1.2 2.3 3.1 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 15 85 100 3.5 4.4 3.3 2.6 90.5 82.7 0.7 1.5 2.9 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 14 86 100 3.3 4.2 4.0 2.6 90.9 83.4 0.5 1.3 2.3 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 16 84 100 2.4 3.4 3.5 2.7 91.1 83.6 -0.3 0.2 1.5 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 16 84 100 2.6 3.5 3.2 2.6 90.9 82.9 0.3 1.1 2.0 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 13 87 100 3.9 5.3 4.7 2.7 91.2 83.1 1.3 2.4 3.5 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 15 85 100 3.3 4.1 4.3 1.9 83.8 78.1 0.8 1.8 2.8 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 13 87 100 4.1 4.6 3.4 2.6 89.5 82.5 1.1 2.3 3.4 30 Nis 06700G01 0 16 84 100 3.3 4.5 5.9 2.7 89.7 81.4 0.7 1.9 3.0 30 Palic 37000G16 0 15 85 100 1.4 2.1 2.9 2.7 90.8 83.2 -0.6 0.2 1.1 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 14 86 100 3.6 4.8 6.2 2.8 91.5 83.2 1.1 2.2 3.3 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 17 83 100 -0.6 0.5 1.9 2.8 89.1 82.2 -3.2 -2.0 -1.0 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 12 88 100 4.0 4.9 6.0 2.8 91.3 84.2 1.1 2.0 2.9 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 15 85 100 3.1 4.0 5.9 2.6 90.8 81.6 0.5 1.5 2.8 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 13 87 100 3.4 4.3 6.1 2.7 92.6 83.6 0.9 2.0 3.0 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 12 88 100 2.7 4.1 4.4 2.7 91.9 84.0 0.7 1.3 2.5 29 Valjevo 28500G11 0 8 92 100 3.7 4.8 5.7 2.9 90.3 83.8 1.1 2.1 3.3 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 14 86 100 2.7 4.0 3.1 2.7 92.1 83.8 0.4 1.3 2.4 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 10 90 100 4.3 5.8 6.4 3.1 90.5 83.8 1.1 2.4 3.8 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 12 88 100 2.2 2.9 3.5 2.2 85.5 79.5 -0.4 0.2 1.7 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 15 85 100 1.3 3.4 2.5 2.7 89.9 82.3 -1.7 0.0 0.9 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 13 87 100 4.0 5.9 6.4 2.9 90.9 83.3 1.1 2.2 3.6 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------