***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 31.10.2019. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 25.11.2019.-01.12.2019. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 34 66 100 3.6 2.2 3.2 1.7 65.4 63.0 0.2 1.0 2.4 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 37 63 100 3.2 1.7 2.8 1.4 62.6 61.6 -0.3 1.3 2.1 30 Becej 27400G00 0 34 66 100 4.7 4.8 3.2 1.6 67.1 64.3 1.2 2.3 4.5 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 33 67 100 -0.7 -1.1 0.4 1.7 65.1 64.8 -4.1 -2.2 -1.1 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 33 67 100 2.4 2.2 1.0 1.7 66.7 64.5 -0.3 0.8 2.2 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 32 68 100 1.6 1.5 -0.6 1.9 65.3 65.7 -1.1 0.0 1.6 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 35 65 100 2.7 2.0 2.9 1.5 65.3 61.8 -0.2 0.9 2.1 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 38 62 100 -2.4 -2.4 -0.2 1.9 65.4 64.5 -5.7 -4.4 -2.4 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 35 65 100 3.3 3.2 1.5 1.7 66.1 64.7 0.3 1.5 3.2 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 36 64 100 2.4 2.7 0.3 1.8 66.4 64.9 -0.4 1.1 2.7 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 36 64 100 2.4 2.2 0.7 1.8 66.4 64.9 -0.4 0.3 2.1 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 37 63 100 1.6 1.5 0.3 1.8 66.4 64.8 -1.6 -0.9 1.5 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 36 64 100 1.8 1.0 -0.1 1.9 65.2 65.3 -1.2 0.3 1.1 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 32 68 100 3.4 3.1 1.3 1.5 66.1 62.6 0.5 1.6 3.1 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 33 67 100 3.2 2.0 1.4 1.5 65.6 65.1 -0.6 1.1 2.1 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 33 67 100 3.6 3.3 0.1 1.8 64.9 64.8 -0.1 1.3 3.5 30 Nis 06700G01 0 75 25 100 1.2 1.1 2.6 1.2 61.9 60.0 -0.3 0.3 1.5 30 Palic 37000G16 0 34 66 100 0.4 0.6 -0.2 1.9 67.7 64.7 -1.8 -0.3 0.5 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 36 64 100 2.9 1.9 2.8 1.4 62.9 62.2 -0.1 0.9 2.0 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 36 64 100 -1.1 -1.4 -1.2 2.0 64.8 63.7 -4.9 -3.4 -1.1 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 34 66 100 2.7 2.4 2.5 1.7 66.5 64.4 0.4 0.9 2.2 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 76 24 100 1.2 1.2 2.4 1.1 59.9 59.7 -0.5 0.5 1.7 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 36 64 100 2.7 2.3 2.8 1.4 65.2 62.9 0.1 0.8 2.3 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 33 67 100 2.4 1.9 1.1 1.7 67.4 64.8 -0.5 0.8 1.7 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 33 67 100 3.2 2.9 2.0 1.7 66.4 63.4 0.0 1.0 2.8 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 37 63 100 2.0 2.0 0.0 1.9 66.6 65.5 -0.7 0.5 2.0 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 33 67 100 4.0 3.3 2.8 1.7 65.1 62.7 -0.1 1.0 3.7 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 33 67 100 1.9 1.1 0.5 1.6 63.3 64.7 -1.6 0.1 1.2 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 34 66 100 0.5 0.2 -0.4 2.0 65.3 64.2 -2.8 -1.4 0.2 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 36 64 100 3.3 2.5 2.9 1.5 64.4 62.5 0.1 1.2 2.7 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------