***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 31.10.2019. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 11.11.2019.-17.11.2019. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 26 74 100 5.0 5.6 6.9 2.6 77.5 71.6 1.8 3.1 4.1 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 27 73 100 4.0 4.5 6.3 2.4 76.0 70.1 0.8 2.4 4.0 30 Becej 27400G00 0 28 72 100 5.8 6.2 6.8 2.4 77.7 71.7 2.8 4.8 5.3 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 32 68 100 1.4 2.0 4.1 2.3 76.2 71.5 -1.8 -0.6 0.6 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 27 73 100 3.4 3.5 5.0 2.2 76.1 70.9 0.8 2.5 3.1 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 23 77 100 2.7 3.0 2.7 2.2 78.0 71.7 0.1 1.9 2.6 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 27 73 100 3.9 4.4 6.3 2.4 75.6 70.0 0.9 1.8 4.1 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 20 80 100 -1.1 -0.8 3.0 2.2 77.2 71.5 -3.3 -2.5 -1.0 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 24 76 100 4.4 4.9 4.9 2.1 78.0 70.9 1.9 2.7 3.8 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 20 80 100 4.0 4.3 3.5 2.1 77.7 71.0 0.7 2.5 3.3 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 25 75 100 3.6 4.1 4.3 2.1 77.8 70.7 0.9 2.2 2.8 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 22 78 100 2.7 3.1 3.7 2.2 77.2 71.4 0.6 1.3 2.4 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 27 73 100 3.0 3.3 3.1 1.8 73.1 68.6 0.0 1.8 3.1 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 25 75 100 5.0 5.6 4.8 2.1 75.7 70.7 1.8 2.7 4.1 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 29 71 100 3.4 4.1 5.2 2.1 79.7 71.3 0.9 1.9 2.7 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 29 71 100 4.0 4.4 3.7 2.1 76.9 70.3 1.5 2.9 3.7 30 Nis 06700G01 0 31 69 100 3.7 4.3 6.0 2.2 74.2 68.9 1.0 1.7 3.9 30 Palic 37000G16 0 18 82 100 2.1 2.2 3.0 2.1 76.5 70.8 -0.2 1.3 2.0 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 28 72 100 4.2 4.6 6.4 2.4 77.1 71.0 1.1 2.3 3.8 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 23 77 100 0.1 0.3 2.0 2.2 73.3 70.3 -2.8 -1.4 -0.3 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 27 73 100 4.2 4.6 6.1 2.2 76.5 70.8 1.5 2.3 4.0 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 32 68 100 3.5 4.0 6.1 2.1 74.4 69.6 1.0 1.7 3.4 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 27 73 100 3.6 4.1 6.3 2.3 78.2 72.2 1.3 2.0 3.8 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 21 79 100 3.5 3.8 4.6 2.1 77.0 70.9 0.4 2.1 3.2 29 Valjevo 28500G11 0 27 73 100 4.2 4.4 6.1 2.6 77.3 72.0 1.3 2.9 3.7 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 27 73 100 3.2 3.6 3.2 2.1 72.8 69.8 0.3 1.7 2.8 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 26 74 100 5.0 5.8 6.6 2.6 77.5 71.1 1.2 2.4 4.3 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 33 67 100 1.9 2.4 4.2 2.1 76.5 70.4 0.0 0.8 2.1 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 21 79 100 2.2 2.2 2.6 2.1 75.9 70.7 -0.6 0.0 1.3 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 27 73 100 4.3 4.8 6.6 2.5 76.8 71.0 1.3 2.1 4.1 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------