***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 31.10.2019. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 04.11.2019.-10.11.2019. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 0 100 100 7.1 9.4 12.2 6.3 99.1 98.4 2.1 3.7 5.0 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 0 100 100 6.2 9.3 11.7 6.3 99.3 98.1 1.8 2.9 4.3 30 Becej 27400G00 0 0 100 100 7.6 11.4 12.4 6.3 99.7 98.9 4.2 5.3 6.3 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 0 100 100 2.2 5.6 8.1 4.6 95.3 95.2 -1.0 0.3 1.4 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 0 100 100 5.4 10.3 10.8 6.1 99.6 99.0 1.0 2.7 4.7 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 0 100 100 4.0 7.7 6.6 4.6 97.1 96.7 0.7 2.6 3.5 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 0 100 100 5.8 9.4 11.9 6.5 99.4 98.6 2.1 3.0 4.3 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 0 100 100 0.9 3.4 7.3 4.9 97.1 96.7 -3.2 -0.9 -0.2 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 0 100 100 6.6 9.7 9.9 5.4 99.2 98.4 2.4 3.7 4.3 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 0 100 100 6.1 9.2 8.2 5.1 97.9 97.4 1.9 3.2 4.5 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 0 100 100 5.6 8.9 9.5 5.4 98.6 98.1 1.4 2.9 4.3 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 0 100 100 4.4 8.0 8.6 5.4 98.3 98.1 0.6 2.1 2.9 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 0 100 100 4.9 8.3 8.6 5.5 99.4 98.7 1.0 2.0 3.6 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 0 100 100 6.6 9.4 10.0 5.8 99.9 98.6 2.9 3.9 5.3 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 0 100 100 5.9 7.8 8.1 3.2 90.7 89.6 1.5 3.0 3.9 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 0 100 100 6.3 10.4 8.7 5.2 98.0 97.5 2.3 3.6 4.6 30 Nis 06700G01 0 0 100 100 5.5 9.0 11.4 6.3 99.5 98.3 1.8 3.4 3.9 30 Palic 37000G16 0 0 100 100 4.4 6.3 8.1 5.4 99.0 98.2 0.8 1.8 2.9 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 0 100 100 6.2 9.3 11.7 6.2 99.4 98.1 2.0 3.5 4.8 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 0 100 100 2.7 5.2 7.0 5.3 99.1 97.7 -2.1 -1.3 0.6 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 0 100 100 6.1 9.8 11.6 6.1 99.8 99.1 1.6 3.3 4.1 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 0 100 100 5.3 8.3 11.5 6.1 99.7 98.4 1.7 2.5 3.9 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 0 100 100 5.9 9.5 11.3 5.8 99.5 98.1 2.1 3.1 4.8 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 0 100 100 5.3 8.1 9.9 5.7 99.5 98.7 1.9 2.9 3.9 29 Valjevo 28500G11 0 0 100 100 6.9 10.3 11.6 6.1 99.1 98.2 1.7 3.0 4.6 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 0 100 100 5.5 9.4 8.2 5.4 99.3 98.5 1.5 2.6 4.2 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 0 100 100 7.2 11.6 12.3 6.6 99.1 98.5 1.6 3.3 4.2 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 0 100 100 4.4 7.2 7.9 4.1 93.5 92.9 0.3 1.2 2.9 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 0 100 100 3.8 7.5 7.2 5.2 99.2 97.8 -0.1 0.9 2.8 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 0 100 100 6.7 9.9 12.1 6.3 99.2 98.2 2.1 3.3 4.7 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------