***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 31.10.2013. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 04.11.2013.-01.12.2013. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 59 41 0 100 9999.0 0.0 40.8 79.6 38.8 38.7 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 62 38 0 100 27.6 27.6 38.5 77.3 32.7 37.1 28.1 45.8 59.3 30 Becej 27400G00 60 40 0 100 34.9 38.9 41.3 79.3 36.1 38.2 37.7 52.5 65.2 30 Beograd 28900G14 59 41 0 100 45.1 45.1 43.6 73.8 30.9 34.4 47.1 59.3 71.7 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 61 39 0 100 35.4 30.4 45.7 79.3 32.4 37.5 30.7 48.6 66.9 30 Cuprija 39700G22 63 37 0 100 32.0 35.6 47.8 80.6 33.3 36.5 35.1 45.2 60.6 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 61 39 0 100 25.9 25.5 38.1 76.5 32.2 36.2 26.7 38.4 54.0 30 Kikinda 37800G18 64 36 0 100 48.3 51.5 49.0 77.9 31.9 35.3 52.1 74.8 105.9 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 59 41 0 100 31.9 35.1 46.5 80.8 34.5 38.6 32.7 49.1 65.0 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 62 38 0 100 36.0 46.0 49.9 80.6 34.7 37.4 42.4 52.8 63.5 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 61 39 0 100 33.4 32.5 43.7 79.2 33.4 36.9 32.0 49.3 69.3 30 Krusevac 38200G21 61 39 0 100 36.0 39.9 43.1 77.2 31.9 35.8 41.7 57.8 81.0 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 64 36 0 100 36.6 45.4 45.4 78.3 31.7 36.3 45.6 56.2 71.6 30 Leskovac 26200G08 60 40 0 100 48.1 56.0 50.1 80.4 38.2 37.6 46.6 67.3 82.2 30 Loznica 29500G14 68 32 0 100 33.0 37.7 41.4 68.3 28.2 31.7 47.1 60.5 75.1 30 Negotin 38800G20 63 37 0 100 31.6 41.5 43.3 77.5 30.6 36.0 42.5 49.2 65.7 30 Nis 06700G01 62 38 0 100 26.6 26.8 37.8 75.8 34.1 36.2 25.9 39.3 48.7 30 Palic 37000G16 62 38 0 100 44.4 50.3 55.1 80.5 35.3 37.6 49.1 66.8 79.1 30 Pozega 16800G06 61 39 0 100 32.7 31.5 39.5 78.1 34.4 37.3 30.2 50.3 63.7 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 62 38 0 100 50.4 50.3 64.3 75.2 31.6 33.9 51.9 73.7 83.9 29 Sjenica 27900G10 59 41 0 100 32.5 38.6 43.6 80.1 35.7 38.7 35.7 49.1 63.5 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 62 38 0 100 28.2 33.0 39.6 75.7 32.8 35.2 33.1 45.5 63.3 30 Sombor 26600G07 61 39 0 100 33.6 37.0 41.9 79.3 37.0 37.4 34.1 48.5 60.4 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 61 39 0 100 37.6 48.0 49.0 80.8 37.9 38.4 44.3 61.2 73.6 28 Valjevo 28500G11 54 46 0 100 32.2 36.3 45.6 79.2 35.9 37.8 35.3 45.7 52.0 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 65 35 0 100 33.7 32.8 44.1 73.6 27.9 34.3 35.9 50.6 70.7 30 Vranje 18300G04 57 43 0 100 32.6 38.7 43.9 80.0 37.7 38.6 36.8 45.8 54.9 30 Vrsac 39200G15 64 36 0 100 33.9 30.1 41.9 71.4 29.1 33.0 31.8 52.3 69.7 30 Zajecar 36700G16 62 38 0 100 65.9 74.3 59.1 78.5 32.8 36.1 74.7 101.7 112.1 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 62 38 0 100 27.4 26.1 39.0 77.8 33.0 37.2 26.2 41.5 54.3 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------