***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 31.10.2013. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 25.11.2013.-01.12.2013. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 75 25 100 9999.0 0.0 12.1 106.6 60.7 50.1 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 53 47 0 100 1.8 5.7 10.2 95.3 60.2 50.1 2.1 3.4 10.4 30 Becej 27400G00 52 48 0 100 3.4 9.3 11.6 99.6 58.1 49.2 3.2 6.8 11.7 30 Beograd 28900G14 53 47 0 100 6.6 12.0 12.1 94.5 54.4 45.9 5.2 11.4 15.2 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 75 25 100 11.1 11.1 12.1 96.7 56.8 46.9 2.4 8.0 18.0 30 Cuprija 39700G22 54 46 0 100 3.6 7.4 12.2 98.3 55.2 45.7 3.3 6.8 11.2 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 57 43 0 100 3.0 7.8 10.0 94.6 59.7 48.7 3.7 5.9 10.2 30 Kikinda 37800G18 54 46 0 100 6.8 11.7 12.3 95.9 55.8 48.0 7.2 9.3 14.0 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 77 23 100 7.3 5.3 12.2 96.1 55.9 47.4 2.1 4.1 15.7 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 52 48 0 100 4.8 9.6 12.4 93.4 54.0 47.2 3.6 7.8 15.5 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 75 25 100 10.7 10.3 11.3 99.3 58.6 47.9 3.6 8.4 13.8 30 Krusevac 38200G21 53 47 0 100 5.8 14.7 11.1 100.5 59.2 48.8 7.1 10.9 15.4 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 52 48 0 100 4.7 9.4 11.9 101.4 58.5 48.5 5.8 7.9 12.9 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 75 25 100 14.4 11.7 13.0 94.4 51.7 48.4 3.5 11.4 17.7 30 Loznica 29500G14 56 44 0 100 5.1 13.4 11.3 89.3 57.2 44.7 4.6 10.4 18.3 30 Negotin 38800G20 51 49 0 100 5.2 11.6 11.3 99.4 58.3 47.3 4.5 10.1 13.7 30 Nis 06700G01 52 48 0 100 2.7 6.7 9.4 90.8 55.5 48.9 3.0 4.7 10.2 30 Palic 37000G16 52 48 0 100 6.2 10.2 13.6 89.3 50.4 46.6 6.4 10.0 17.7 30 Pozega 16800G06 53 47 0 100 2.6 7.0 10.6 96.8 59.4 50.4 1.2 5.1 10.5 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 76 24 100 17.6 15.0 16.1 90.3 54.3 47.6 6.7 14.8 21.9 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 75 25 100 9.8 10.2 12.1 99.8 57.8 48.7 2.3 7.7 11.9 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 77 23 100 8.8 6.2 10.1 92.8 54.3 49.0 2.7 5.8 11.7 30 Sombor 26600G07 51 49 0 100 3.7 7.8 11.4 98.2 57.4 50.0 2.5 7.2 13.3 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 51 49 0 100 5.8 9.8 12.6 91.4 50.9 47.1 4.2 9.6 12.3 28 Valjevo 28500G11 0 76 24 100 10.1 9.5 13.2 105.3 58.9 49.0 3.3 6.6 12.4 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 56 44 0 100 3.8 8.7 12.2 101.9 61.1 49.4 4.4 7.0 10.5 30 Vranje 18300G04 51 49 0 100 3.1 9.4 13.0 108.6 60.9 50.1 2.7 6.3 10.2 30 Vrsac 39200G15 54 46 0 100 5.2 11.8 11.2 90.6 55.4 44.9 5.2 10.0 15.3 30 Zajecar 36700G16 54 46 0 100 7.1 13.4 14.6 87.5 51.2 46.5 8.3 13.0 26.3 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 55 45 0 100 2.2 5.1 10.8 99.5 62.0 50.2 2.8 3.9 7.9 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------