***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 31.10.2013. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 18.11.2013.-24.11.2013. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 79 21 100 9999.0 0.0 12.8 97.3 55.3 50.7 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 52 48 0 100 3.1 6.8 11.8 89.3 54.9 47.6 1.5 5.9 11.3 30 Becej 27400G00 0 79 21 100 9.6 10.1 13.0 99.2 60.0 51.7 2.6 7.8 10.7 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 76 24 100 16.1 15.2 14.7 96.0 59.1 50.6 6.5 12.5 18.2 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 78 22 100 14.3 14.6 15.3 105.4 62.7 54.1 4.5 12.0 17.7 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 75 25 100 17.4 14.5 14.6 91.1 56.1 47.4 8.5 13.8 18.4 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 75 25 100 8.5 7.5 11.6 86.7 54.2 46.5 2.4 5.9 10.1 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 77 23 100 27.0 26.7 15.9 99.2 61.2 52.1 4.9 23.0 30.0 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 76 24 100 12.6 17.4 15.6 109.4 64.0 55.4 1.3 9.9 18.2 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 78 22 100 13.8 16.3 16.4 106.1 63.0 54.9 2.9 10.3 17.7 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 76 24 100 14.3 18.1 14.7 103.3 62.9 53.2 3.5 10.5 19.9 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 75 25 100 12.1 11.9 14.0 96.5 59.8 50.4 3.8 8.3 14.3 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 56 44 0 100 7.6 20.1 14.4 93.0 55.2 47.6 4.5 17.3 21.7 30 Leskovac 26200G08 52 48 0 100 7.8 20.2 15.3 97.3 60.5 51.5 4.1 15.0 23.8 30 Loznica 29500G14 55 45 0 100 3.3 11.4 13.7 85.5 59.9 47.0 3.8 6.8 13.2 30 Negotin 38800G20 54 46 0 100 5.8 15.7 14.0 95.3 58.8 49.4 5.7 12.5 19.6 30 Nis 06700G01 0 76 24 100 10.8 8.8 11.3 84.2 53.7 45.5 1.9 8.6 10.7 30 Palic 37000G16 0 79 21 100 13.4 16.5 17.6 102.3 60.6 54.3 4.9 10.3 20.0 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 75 25 100 11.0 10.2 12.1 91.9 56.9 48.7 2.8 8.8 12.6 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 76 24 100 15.8 12.3 20.3 91.2 53.7 49.8 6.0 10.4 19.1 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 77 23 100 12.1 12.4 14.3 105.5 60.4 53.8 2.7 10.1 13.6 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 77 23 100 12.5 9.9 11.6 84.6 53.6 45.6 3.4 9.5 13.3 30 Sombor 26600G07 54 46 0 100 3.8 9.3 12.8 95.1 61.2 50.5 2.4 7.3 11.3 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 76 24 100 15.2 16.6 15.4 102.4 62.8 54.0 2.4 10.3 17.6 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 80 20 100 9.2 9.8 14.6 99.3 54.5 51.5 2.4 7.8 12.0 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 53 47 0 100 6.8 15.1 14.2 90.9 55.5 47.9 6.2 13.9 24.2 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 80 20 100 8.2 7.9 13.7 96.0 54.1 50.2 2.0 5.6 10.9 30 Vrsac 39200G15 54 46 0 100 4.1 13.4 14.0 90.2 59.3 48.1 3.4 8.9 15.7 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 80 20 100 20.4 28.0 18.8 98.5 58.2 52.6 7.4 16.0 33.2 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 51 49 0 100 3.0 6.3 12.0 91.6 54.6 48.7 2.1 5.8 11.7 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------